Bitcoin Cycle Chart (Live)
This free chart overlays the current Bitcoin market on every prior cycle — bear markets measured from cycle tops, bull markets from cycle bottoms — and pattern-matches the live path against every past cycle since 2011. Data updates daily. No signup required.
By Menno van Ravels - 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Cycle Map
stop guessing where we are
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<iframe src="https://www.thealphafactory.io/bitcoin-cycle-chart/embed" width="100%" height="640" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;background:#080C14" title="Bitcoin Cycle Chart" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.thealphafactory.io/bitcoin-cycle-chart">Bitcoin Cycle Chart</a> by Alpha Factory</p>
Does the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Still Exist?
The pattern everyone trades on is real history: after each halving (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), Bitcoin has put in a cycle top roughly 12-18 months later, followed by a drawdown of roughly 77-85% on daily closes and a slow recovery into the next halving. Three clean repetitions turned a coincidence into a calendar, and by 2025 “the cycle” had become the default mental model for most retail investors.
The honest problem: the mechanism behind that pattern is weakening. Each halving cuts a smaller share of effective supply, spot ETFs route demand through flows that ignore halving math entirely, and the investor base has shifted from cyclical retail to longer-horizon institutions. That does not prove the cycle is dead — it means a date on the calendar is no longer a thesis. What still works is comparing the live market against prior cycles path by path instead of counting anniversaries. That is what the chart above shows: whether the current market tracks a historical analogue or breaks away from all of them.
Menno breaks down what his indicators are saying against the classic 4-year cycle thesis — and why the two currently disagree.
My Indicators Say Buy. The 4-Year Cycle Says Crash. · FOMO Factory on YouTube
Rainbow Chart vs Cycle Map: What's the Difference?
The classic Bitcoin rainbow chart draws colored logarithmic regression bands over the full price history. It is a fun long-term valuation heuristic, but its bands are fitted to past data and get redrawn when price escapes them — which has already happened more than once. A cycle overlay takes a different approach: it aligns every historical cycle at a common pivot (the top for bear scenarios, the bottom for bull scenarios) and plots them on the same axis as the live market. Instead of asking “which color band are we in?”, you ask “which prior cycle does the current path actually resemble, and where does it diverge?” — a question with a measurable answer that updates daily.
Prefer the classic rainbow view? See the live Bitcoin Rainbow Chart — same live BTC data, fitted as a logarithmic regression with colored valuation bands.
How to Read This Chart
Pick a scenario: Bear aligns every cycle at its top and tracks the drawdown path; Bull aligns cycles at their bottom and tracks the recovery. The highlighted series is the live market; the pattern matcher marks which historical cycle currently fits best. Use the toggles to isolate cycles, and hover any point for exact day counts and returns. The overlay is a context tool, not a prediction: prior cycles bound what has happened, never what must happen.
For more context on where Bitcoin sits in its cycle, see the free Bitcoin risk analysis and backtest your plan in the DCA simulator.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the Bitcoin 4-year cycle still exist?
The historical pattern is real: measured from each halving, Bitcoin has repeatedly produced a top roughly 12-18 months later, followed by a drawdown of roughly 77-85% on daily closes (2013, 2017 and 2021 cycles). Whether it persists is genuinely contested — ETF flows, institutional holders and a shrinking halving impact all weaken the original supply-shock mechanism. The honest approach is not to trade a calendar date but to compare the live market against prior cycles and watch where it diverges, which is exactly what this chart does.
What is the difference between a rainbow chart and a cycle chart?
The classic rainbow chart fits colored logarithmic regression bands over Bitcoin's full price history — it is a long-term valuation heuristic with bands chosen by curve-fitting. A cycle chart aligns each historical cycle at a common starting point (a cycle top or bottom) and overlays them, so you compare the current market's path day-by-day against prior cycles instead of against a fitted band. Cycle overlays make divergence visible; rainbow bands mostly make history look tidy.
Where are we in the current Bitcoin cycle?
The chart above answers this live: it plots the current market from the last cycle pivot and automatically highlights which prior cycle the current path most closely matches. Because it renders from daily updated data, the reading on this page is current rather than a snapshot from an article.
What is the Pi Cycle Top indicator?
Pi Cycle Top flags a potential Bitcoin top when the 111-day moving average crosses above two times the 350-day moving average. It was fitted on a small number of past cycles and did not cross at the November 2021 high, so it is one input among several cycle measures, not a standalone signal.
Is this Bitcoin cycle chart free?
Yes. The Bitcoin overlay is free and requires no account. An Alpha Factory membership adds the same cycle mapping for other major coins, plus the wider risk toolkit the chart links into.
Can I embed this chart on my own site?
Yes — use the embed code on this page. The embedded chart stays live (it reads the same daily-updated dataset) and includes an attribution link back to this page.