Market Echo: when did Bitcoin last look like this?

Traders often say the market rhymes: a stretch of price action reminds them of an earlier one. Market Echo does that search for you, without picking the examples by eye. You choose how much recent history to match (30, 60, 90 or 180 days) and how far ahead to look (30, 90 or 180 days).

The chart has two halves. On the left is Bitcoin's real path over the chosen pattern length, with the eight echoes' own paths drawn behind it so you can see how close they are. On the right is what followed each echo, started from today's price: green if it ended higher, red if it ended lower. The shaded band is the middle half of those outcomes and the dashed line is their median. Below the chart, a strip of Bitcoin's full history marks where each echo happened, and a table lists each echo with its match, its return after 30, 90 and 180 days and its deepest dip on the way.

Every price path is turned into a curve of percentage moves relative to its own last day, on a log scale. Market Echo compares today's curve with the curve ending on every earlier day. The match combines two things: the correlation of the two shapes, and how similar the size of the move was, so a quiet 5% drift does not count as a match for a 50% rally with the same shape.

Two rules keep the result honest. An echo and its whole look-ahead period must end before today's pattern starts, so no echo already contains today. And the eight echoes are at least one pattern length apart, so they are eight different episodes rather than the same week counted eight times.

Start with the key figure: how many of the eight echoes were higher after the look-ahead period, and their median return. Then look at the line under it, which compares that with any day in Bitcoin's history since mid-2013. Bitcoin went up over most long windows, so "6 of 8 higher" only means something if it clearly beats that base rate. The page says so in plain words: the echoes lean more positive, more negative, or are about as mixed as an average day.

Eight echoes is a small sample. Two settings next to each other can tell different stories, and that is useful information too: when the answer flips with the setting, the pattern has no stable edge.