Market Rewind: what did the market look like on that day?

Looking at a chart afterwards, every top and bottom looks obvious. Market Rewind puts you back on the day itself. You pick a date, or one of the well-known turning points such as the COVID crash or the November 2021 high, and see the year of Bitcoin's price before it together with every Alpha Factory cycle indicator as it read that day.

The year after the day is covered by a curtain. You decide first: higher or lower 30, 90 or 365 days later. Then the curtain opens and you see what Bitcoin actually did, with the return at each step and the deepest dip on the way. A blind round picks a random day and hides the date and the price, so all you have to go on are the indicators.

At the top, Market Rewind names the single earlier day whose indicators sat closest to today's, with one tap to rewind there. After a reveal you can share the day: the link opens on the same day and look-ahead with the curtain still shut, so the other person makes their own call. The address bar always holds the current day, except in a blind round.

Each indicator runs from 0 to 100 and gets one spoke of a five-sided shape. Close to the centre means cheap: price is low against that indicator's own history. Close to the edge means hot. The green inner ring marks readings of 30 and below, the red outer ring readings of 70 and above, and the list next to the shape says cheap, neutral or hot per indicator in the same bands.

The dashed shape is today's fingerprint, so you can compare a past day with now at a glance. When you drag along history the shape moves with you, which shows how the indicators drift together through a cycle and where they disagree. The coloured band under the history line is the average of the available indicators, smoothed over the trailing 21 days: green below 50, red above, stronger the further from 50.

Bitcoin's price is the daily close from our price archive and Binance; the newest point is yesterday's close. The five indicators come from the same daily histories as the Alpha Factory backtester: Risk Wave from Bitcoin's distance to its long-term average, Fear & Greed from Alternative.me, the 200-week moving average as a rank against its own history, production cost as price against the miner cost floor, and the Gaussian channel as Bitcoin's position inside that channel.

Some of these indicators are calculated over Bitcoin's full price history, so a value on a past day can use data that came later, for example the rank of the 200-week average. The shape is therefore a close picture of that day, not an exact copy of what a dashboard showed then. If one indicator source is down, the page says so and works with the other four.

Below the chart, Market Rewind looks for earlier days on which every shared indicator was within 10 points of the chosen day, with at least four indicators available. When that finds fewer than three earlier episodes, it widens the band to 15 and then 20 points, and the section says which band it used. Days next to each other count as one episode, so a long stretch is not counted thirty times.

Only episodes whose outcome was already known on the chosen day count. That makes the answer what you could have looked up then, without hindsight. Next to it you see how often Bitcoin was higher after any earlier readable day over the same look-ahead, with the same rule, because the lookalikes only mean something against that base rate. Often there are only a handful of earlier episodes, and sometimes none: then history simply had nothing to lean on.

A handful of earlier episodes is a small sample. Bitcoin rose over most long windows in this history, so higher is the easier call; a good score in blind rounds says more if you also get the drops right. Your calls are only counted for this visit and are not saved.