Risk Wave Track Record
Every Signal Since 2014
Every DCA zone and trim zone the Risk Wave identified — with Bitcoin price at the time. No cherry-picking. No hindsight edits. Wins and misses included.
By Menno — 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Last updated: March 2026
Current Risk Score
20 / 100
🟢 DCA Zone — below 25
BTC Price
$66,286
DCA Zones — Risk below 25
Periods when the Risk Wave dropped below 25. Historically the best accumulation windows in each cycle.
Feb 8, 2026 → present
Entry BTC: $69,297
Lowest price in zone: $64,074
May 14, 2022 → Jan 25, 2023
Entry BTC: $29,311 → Exit: $22,610
Lowest price in zone: $15,742
Price change entry → exit
-22.9%
Mar 22, 2020 → Apr 1, 2020
Entry BTC: $6,146 → Exit: $6,422
Lowest price in zone: $5,860
Price change entry → exit
+4.5%
Nov 17, 2018 → Apr 7, 2019
Entry BTC: $5,610 → Exit: $5,042
Lowest price in zone: $3,217
Price change entry → exit
-10.1%
Mar 29, 2015 → Jun 17, 2015
Entry BTC: $241.91 → Exit: $247.69
Lowest price in zone: $218
Price change entry → exit
+2.4%
Jan 3, 2015 → Mar 11, 2015
Entry BTC: $286.57 → Exit: $295.96
Lowest price in zone: $172.15
Price change entry → exit
+3.3%
Trim Zones — Risk above 75
Periods when the Risk Wave rose above 75. Historically elevated risk — often near cycle peaks.
Jan 5, 2021 → Apr 29, 2021
Entry BTC: $31,516 → Exit: $54,811
Peak price in zone: $63,577
Price change entry → exit
+73.9%
Nov 24, 2017 → Jan 22, 2018
Entry BTC: $8,278 → Exit: $10,992
Peak price in zone: $19,665
Price change entry → exit
+32.8%
Nov 9, 2017 → Nov 12, 2017
Entry BTC: $7,186 → Exit: $5,867
Peak price in zone: $7,186
Price change entry → exit
-18.4%
Use the Risk Wave in your own strategy
The Risk Wave is live inside Alpha Factory. See the current score, set up alerts, and combine it with Menno's daily updates to make better-timed decisions.