Risk Wave Track Record
Every Signal Since 2014
Backtest, computed after the fact
Every DCA zone (7) and trim zone (3) the Risk Wave finds when today's formula is run over past Bitcoin prices. Wins and misses included.
By Menno van Ravels - 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Current Risk Score
36 / 100
⚪ Neutral — between 25–75
BTC Price
$68,476
DCA Zones — Risk below 25
Periods when the Risk Wave dropped below 25. Historically the best accumulation windows in each cycle.
Jun 2, 2026 → Aug 24, 2026
Entry BTC: $71,320 → Exit: $77,712
Lowest price in zone: $58,566
Price change entry → exit
+9.0%
Feb 8, 2026 → Apr 29, 2026
Entry BTC: $69,246 → Exit: $76,332
Lowest price in zone: $64,074
Price change entry → exit
+10.2%
May 14, 2022 → Jan 25, 2023
Entry BTC: $29,363 → Exit: $22,630
Lowest price in zone: $15,794
Price change entry → exit
-22.9%
Mar 22, 2020 → Apr 1, 2020
Entry BTC: $6,171 → Exit: $6,419
Lowest price in zone: $5,848
Price change entry → exit
+4.0%
Nov 17, 2018 → Apr 7, 2019
Entry BTC: $5,610 → Exit: $5,041
Lowest price in zone: $3,216
Price change entry → exit
-10.1%
Mar 29, 2015 → Jun 17, 2015
Entry BTC: $241.91 → Exit: $247.69
Lowest price in zone: $218
Price change entry → exit
+2.4%
Jan 3, 2015 → Mar 11, 2015
Entry BTC: $286.57 → Exit: $295.96
Lowest price in zone: $172.15
Price change entry → exit
+3.3%
Trim Zones — Risk above 75
Periods when the Risk Wave rose above 75. Historically elevated risk — often near cycle peaks.
Jan 5, 2021 → Apr 29, 2021
Entry BTC: $31,538 → Exit: $54,953
Peak price in zone: $63,644
Price change entry → exit
+74.2%
Nov 24, 2017 → Jan 22, 2018
Entry BTC: $8,278 → Exit: $10,992
Peak price in zone: $19,665
Price change entry → exit
+32.8%
Nov 9, 2017 → Nov 12, 2017
Entry BTC: $7,186 → Exit: $5,867
Peak price in zone: $7,186
Price change entry → exit
-18.4%
Use the Risk Wave in your own strategy
The Risk Wave is live inside Alpha Factory. See the current score, set up alerts, and combine it with Menno's daily updates to make better-timed decisions.