All updates
Improvement
Rainbow Chart — The Bands Now Shrink
The rainbow model was rebuilt: bands that narrow with real volatility, a Time Machine slider, and a ledger of every time price left the rainbow.
Aug 11, 2026
Alpha Factory updates can mention product signals, indicators, or portfolio workflows. They are educational product context, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.
Our rainbow chart had the flaw every rainbow chart has: fixed-width bands. Bitcoin's volatility has been falling for a decade, so bands that never narrow slowly stop describing the market. It is rebuilt from the model up.
- The bands are now fitted to the real spread of the price distribution, so they shrink as volatility shrinks
- Time Machine: slide back in time and see the rainbow as it looked then, fitted only on the data that existed at that date. No hindsight.
- Excursion Ledger: every episode where price left the rainbow completely, how long it stayed out, and what happened in the 90 days after
- Where BTC sits right now in plain language, with its percentile rank inside the band
- A methodology block that shows how often price actually landed in each band versus how often it was supposed to, including out of sample. No R-squared, no accuracy percentage, no "fair value".
- It is a lot faster too: a zoom step went from about 1.5 seconds to 23 milliseconds, and the page now renders in well under a second instead of seven
Still free, still no login. Find it at thealphafactory.io/bitcoin-rainbow-chart.