About Alpha Factory and Menno van Ravels
Alpha Factory was founded by Menno van Ravels, a Dutch crypto educator with 13+ years of investing experience across 3 full market cycles and 35,500+ YouTube subscribers. He accepts no paid promotions in the current cycle. Every portfolio move is logged publicly with timestamps and reasoning at /proof.
Former musician. Three-time market cycle survivor. Father. Still here.
Public stats on this page come from Alpha Factory platform records, Menno's public YouTube channel data when available, and the public proof log. They refresh when the page renders.
Read Menno's author profile.
The Full Story
2006 – 2021 · Before Crypto
The Music Years
Before crypto, I was a musician — rapper and producer. Started in 2006. Built an audience, did shows, went on national television, won prizes. It was creative and fun, but it never paid well. Crypto wasn’t my first attempt at creating something from nothing.
2013 · My First Bitcoin
Bought at $400, Sold at $800
A friend told me he was rich — he’d bought 1,000 Bitcoin back in 2011-2012 and it was now worth $400,000. With my last $400, I bought some. A few months later, my $400 was worth $800. I sold. Happy with a 2x. That decision cost me life-changing money because I had no idea what I owned. First lesson: understand what you’re buying.
2017 · Buying the Top
Lost Everything, Took a Loan, Got Wrecked Again
Crypto was everywhere. I went all in with friends — Stratis, Litecoin, DigiByte — we bought everything without understanding any of it. Then the bear market hit. I lost everything. Instead of stepping back, I took out a loan and put it in. Pure emotion. I got completely wrecked.
2018 · The Scam
€5,000 Gone Overnight
I found a platform called “BTC Clock” promising 1-2% daily returns. I took another loan — €5,000 — and put it all in. After exactly one day, the platform disappeared. I was buying a house and couldn’t afford it anymore. I swore I’d never touch crypto again.
2021 · Starting Over
€200K+ and a Hard Choice
I came back. Researched properly. Studied. Put in the hours. Started a YouTube channel called FOMotion. In half a year, I made over €200,000 from investments and promotions. But some projects I promoted turned out to be scams. I stopped doing paid promotions entirely because my community’s trust matters more than any paycheck. I walked away from easy money — and I’d do it again.
2022 · Building Alpha Factory
New Rules, New Platform, New Dad
I sold a decent chunk in Feb-March 2022 before the worst of the crash. Dodged Luna (sold before the collapse) and never used FTX — both by luck, not skill. Lost ~$12K on the USDC depeg. Used the bear market to build what I wished existed: a platform with real transparency, real tools, and zero paid promotions. I also became a father. Read the bear market survival guide →
2024 – Now · The Pivot
Macro Over Astrology
I stopped believing in the 4-year cycle theory. I started looking deeper at macro — specifically ISM Manufacturing — and realized the correlation with crypto was stronger and more logical than the halving narrative. A lot of people disagreed. Subscribers left. But I believe I’m right, and I’d rather lose followers than integrity. Liquidity over astrology — always.
What I Believe (And Why It’s Unpopular)
The 4-Year Cycle Is Crypto Astrology
The business cycle (ISM Manufacturing) correlates with every major Bitcoin move more accurately than the halving theory. The halving story is memeable and easy to understand — which is exactly why people believe it.
Diamond Hands Is a Losing Strategy
If you never sell, you never make money. Diamond hands equals round-tripping. At some point, you have to take profits. Holding forever is copium dressed up as conviction.
If You Lost Money, It's Your Fault
Some people made money in the exact same conditions where you lost. The difference is decisions, not circumstances. This isn't cruel — it's empowering. If it's your fault, you can fix it.
Moon Boy Predictions Are Harmful
Audiences make financial decisions based on content. The influencer gets views while their followers get wrecked. I say what I think is true — whether bullish or bearish.
Counter-Trade Your Emotions
Market dumps, people panic. I say 'buy the fear.' People get angry. Three months later, they wish they'd listened. The best time to buy is when you don't want to.
Buy the Hated, Not the Hyped
People FOMO into pumps and ignore assets down 80% with solid fundamentals. They chase momentum instead of value. I'd rather buy something beaten down and hated — that's where asymmetric opportunity lives.
My Prediction Track Record
Full transparency means sharing the misses too. I’ve made over 1,614 directional predictions across 377 videos since August 2022. Separately, every position I open and close on the public portfolio is logged at /proof — that’s a different metric. Both are below. See full methodology →
Source context: directional accuracy is calculated from tagged public video transcripts since August 2022; resolved-trade win rate is calculated from public proof entries that have both an entry and an exit.
46.8%
Directional accuracy
1,614 calls · baseline 50%
56%
Win rate, resolved trades
11 closed positions
377
Videos Analyzed
| Asset | Predictions | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| QNT | 15 | 66.7% |
| DOT | 19 | 57.9% |
| XRP | 79 | 57% |
| LINK | 114 | 54.4% |
| BTC | 370 | 51.9% |
| ETH | 150 | 50.7% |
| DOGE | 34 | 32.4% |
| BEAM | 45 | 31.1% |
I’m not always right — roughly half of my directional calls land. What I am good at is identifying macro conditions and thinking about risk/reward. The goal isn’t to be right on every call — it’s to be in the right zones at the right times.
How These Numbers Are Calculated
1. Directional accuracy (46.8%)
A “prediction” is any explicit directional call I make in a YouTube video about a specific asset over a specific horizon (e.g. “BTC down to $X by year-end,” “ETH outperforms BTC this quarter”). Every video since August 2022 was transcribed and tagged. A call resolves “correct” if the asset moved in the predicted direction within the stated window. 1,614 calls across 377 videos. Random baseline = 50%; my hit rate is 46.8%. I include this number specifically because it’s near coin-flip — my edge is not in being right on every call, it’s in position sizing and macro context.
2. Win rate on resolved trades
A “resolved trade” is an entry on the public portfolio (logged at /proof with timestamp, price, and thesis) that has since been closed by an explicit trim or sell. For each resolved trade I compute outcome = (exit price − entry price) / entry price. A trade counts as a “win” if outcome > 0. The win-rate stat above is wins / (wins + losses) across every closed entry-exit pair, computed live from the portfolio table on every page load.
Why both matter, and why they differ
Directional accuracy and trade win rate measure different things. A directional call (“BTC goes up next month”) does not require me to take the trade. A resolved trade is an actual position with money on it — entry, exit, P&L. You can be a poor predictor and a good trader if your size is right and your losers are small; you can be a good predictor and a bad trader if you front-run yourself or hold losers too long. Both are public so you can judge both.
What’s excluded
Directional accuracy excludes hedged, conditional, or qualitative statements (“if X then maybe Y”). The trade win rate excludes positions still open (those show as “working” on /proof) and entries less than 21 days old (“too early”). Nothing is removed once it has resolved — losing trades stay in the count.
The Team
Menno van Ravels
Founder & Educator
13+ years in crypto. Former musician. Father. Made every mistake, made real money, walked away from easy money. Macro-first investor who believes liquidity drives everything.
Kevin
Co-Analyst & Right Hand
Started as a viewer who sent mature, well-thought-through charts. Now supports socials, articles, and macro videos. Alpha Factory's public investment accountability, author entity, and proof claims remain centered on Menno.
Member, video, and proof metrics are pulled from platform records and public-channel data at render time when those services are available.
Alpha Factory by the Numbers
299+
Total Members
35K+
YouTube Subscribers
121+
Videos & Articles
13+
Years in Crypto
What Makes Alpha Factory Different?
Full transparency, zero paid promotions, and skin in the game. Every portfolio move is public. No coin is promoted for money in the current cycle.
Full Transparency
Every portfolio move is shared in real time. No hidden positions, no secret sells. You see exactly what Menno does — including the losses.
Zero Paid Promotions
No paid promotions or sponsored coins in the current cycle. Every recommendation is based on genuine conviction, not a paycheck.
Strategy Over Signals
We teach you how to think, not what to buy. Risk management, DCA planning, macro analysis, and portfolio construction — skills that last through every cycle.
Skin in the Game
Menno invests his own money using the same strategies shared on the platform. If the advice is bad, he loses too. Aligned incentives.
Data-Driven, Not Hype-Driven
Every thesis is grounded in indicators — ISM Manufacturing, Risk Wave, Fear & Greed. Not vibes. Not hope. Data.
Community Over Revenue
Walked away from €200K+ in promotion deals to protect community trust. Built Alpha Factory to serve investors, not advertisers.
How I Invest
Core holdings: BTC and ETH as the foundation. Growth layer: high-conviction alts in the top 50. Speculation: small positions (5-10%) in narratives I believe in. Always trying to maintain ~25% stablecoins as dry powder.
Taking profits is non-negotiable. If I buy at $1 and it hits $4, I sell at least half. I don’t care if it goes to $10 or $20 after. I came to win, not to gamble. I take profits when Risk Wave hits the danger zone (80%+), when ISM shows overexpansion, or when sentiment is euphoric. Better to sell too early than too late.
The charts that matter to me: ISM Manufacturing New Orders (the macro compass), Total3ES/BTC (altcoin relative performance), Risk Wave (my own 0-100 indicator), Fear & Greed Index, and BTC/USD. Everything else is noise until these say otherwise.
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