Last 30 Days
2 resolved outcomes
Avg outcome
0.0%
Avg hold
55d
vs BTC-14.8%
Decision Log
Transparent Crypto Portfolio & Public Trade Log
By Menno · Updated March 2026
Alpha Factory logs every investment move in real time with timestamps and reasoning. This page shows our verified track record — every call, every outcome, fully transparent.
Latest logged move · 1 week ago
NEWHYPE · Kevin
Opened new Hyperliquid position
Verified Framework Result
new
"Opened new Hyperliquid position"
Logged on April 21, 2026
buy
"Added to Bitcoin position"
Logged on April 20, 2026
trim
"Trimmed Tether position"
Logged on April 20, 2026
Every trade. Every reason. Every loss.
Win rate
17%
And yes, that's public.
Avg outcome
-25.2%
Per resolved trade.
Avg hold
292d
Proof this is a discipline-first system.
These numbers look bad. They are bad. And they're real.
Every other crypto influencer hides the ugly part of the record. This page does the opposite: trades, losses, reasoning, and timestamps in public so you can audit the discipline instead of buying a fantasy highlight reel.
Trend-following systems lose often and still work because winners are bigger than losers.
Every published loss is a receipt you can audit.
You are not buying wins. You are buying discipline.
- ✓Losses included. Nothing deleted when it goes wrong.
- ✓Real portfolio. Menno's own capital, not paper trades.
- ✓No paid shills. Zero sponsored calls in the log.
`/proof` shows the public move log. `/verify` shows the pre-trade hash anchors and revealed canonical payloads behind those receipts.
For current execution context, check Bitcoin signals and scan daily crypto news.
This is what we actually bought, sold, and why. No cherry-picking, no editing after the fact. Below, you can see both the raw decision log and the aggregate track-record checkpoints built from resolved entries only.
Proof At A Glance
Raw receipts plus resolved-outcome checkpoints
Win rate and average outcome only count ideas that were later trimmed or exited. Open positions are kept out of the public score so the page cannot flatter itself.
All-time win rate
17%
7 resolved ideas
Average resolved outcome
-25.2%
Only closed ideas count
Average hold time
292d
Measured from entry to trim or exit
Thesis coverage
0%
50 open / 7 resolved
0% wins
Last 90 Days
7 resolved outcomes
Avg outcome
-25.2%
Avg hold
292d
vs BTC-24.8%
All Time
7 resolved outcomes
Avg outcome
-25.2%
Avg hold
292d
vs BTC-24.8%
67
Moves logged
30
Coins tracked
2
Expert Traders
since August 2023
Context Matters
Raw numbers don't tell the full story
A negative return during a bear market isn't the same as a negative return during a bull run. What matters is how you performed relative to the market — and whether you had a plan.
Our resolved trades
-25.2%
Average outcome, closed positions only
BTC in the same period
-0.4%
Bitcoin performance, last 90 days
Relative performance
-24.8%
vs BTC benchmark
In a bear market, not losing everything is the first job. Risk management, exit discipline, and position sizing preserved capital while the broader market dropped significantly. The full track record with entry prices, exit prices, and P&L is available to premium members.
Three Investors, Same Market
The difference isn't the market — it's the system
Everyone faces the same bear market. What separates outcomes is whether you had a framework, exit rules, and the discipline to follow them.
The Panic Seller
EmotionalTypical outcome
-10.0%
Sold everything when fear peaked. Locked in maximum losses with no plan to re-enter. Now watching from the sidelines, waiting for "the right time" that never feels right.
- Sold at the bottom on emotion
- No exit strategy — just panic
- No re-entry plan
- Missed every recovery rally
The Alpha Factory Member
SystematicActual avg outcome
-25.2%
Based on real, resolved trades
Followed the system. Risk Wave guided exposure, Altcoin Rules scored conviction, and every exit was planned before entry. Losses were managed, not accidental.
- Predefined exit strategies on every trade
- Risk Wave guided position sizing
- Losses are small and documented
- Positioned for recovery with a DCA plan
The HODL-and-Hope
PassiveTypical outcome
-15.0%
Held everything with no risk management. Down 60-80% on altcoins with no exit plan, no idea when to buy more, and no framework to evaluate whether to hold or cut losses.
- No exit plan — "I'll sell when it goes up"
- No position sizing discipline
- Holding bags down 70%+ on hope
- No framework to evaluate recovery odds
Transparency Comparison
What others hide vs. what we show
46% of crypto complaints on Reddit are about influencer scams. Here's how typical crypto educators compare to our approach.
| Criteria | Typical Paid Group | The 100x Guru | Crypto Twitter Guru | Free Discord Alpha | Alpha Factory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Publishes full trade history | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Shows losing trades publicly | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Date-stamped entries with reasoning | Limited | Limited | Limited | Limited | Yes |
| Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Explains why they exited (not just entered) | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Shows allocation / position sizes | No | No | No | No | Yes |
Alpha Factoryvs. Typical Paid Group
Publishes full trade history
YesNo
Shows losing trades publicly
YesNo
Date-stamped entries with reasoning
YesLimited
Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results
YesNo
Explains why they exited (not just entered)
YesNo
Shows allocation / position sizes
YesNo
Alpha Factoryvs. The 100x Guru
Publishes full trade history
YesNo
Shows losing trades publicly
YesNo
Date-stamped entries with reasoning
YesLimited
Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results
YesNo
Explains why they exited (not just entered)
YesNo
Shows allocation / position sizes
YesNo
Alpha Factoryvs. Crypto Twitter Guru
Publishes full trade history
YesNo
Shows losing trades publicly
YesNo
Date-stamped entries with reasoning
YesLimited
Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results
YesNo
Explains why they exited (not just entered)
YesNo
Shows allocation / position sizes
YesNo
Alpha Factoryvs. Free Discord Alpha
Publishes full trade history
YesNo
Shows losing trades publicly
YesNo
Date-stamped entries with reasoning
YesLimited
Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results
YesNo
Explains why they exited (not just entered)
YesNo
Shows allocation / position sizes
YesNo
Typical Paid Group
Screenshots of green days
Paid Discord or Telegram groups that post entry signals. Results are shared selectively — you see the 10x wins, never the 5 trades that went to zero the same week.
The 100x Guru
Promise everything, prove nothing
YouTube or Twitter influencers who promote low-cap coins with massive return promises. Their income comes from sponsorships and paid promotions, not from the investments they recommend.
Crypto Twitter Guru
Anonymous and unaccountable
Anonymous accounts with large followings who post chart analyses and predictions. When wrong, tweets are deleted. When right, they're pinned for months. No real name, no accountability.
Free Discord Alpha
Free advice, zero accountability
Free community groups where anonymous members share 'alpha.' Popular picks get amplified, failed picks get buried. No one tracks results because no one is responsible.
Methodology
How do we make investment decisions?
Every decision at Alpha Factory follows a repeatable process: research through proprietary frameworks (Altcoin Rules and Risk Wave), strict risk management rules for position sizing, predefined exit strategies, and real-time logging of reasoning. No gut feelings — just data, frameworks, and discipline applied consistently.
Research Frameworks
Every potential investment is evaluated against our Altcoin Rules (8-indicator composite score) and Risk Wave macro indicator. These frameworks combine on-chain data, market structure, sentiment, and macro conditions into objective scores that guide timing and conviction.
Risk Management
Position sizes are determined by conviction level and portfolio exposure limits — never by excitement. No single position exceeds predefined allocation thresholds, and total portfolio risk is monitored continuously. Our risk management guide explains the full methodology.
Position Sizing
Each position is sized relative to overall portfolio value and adjusted based on market conditions. When Risk Wave indicates elevated risk, position sizes shrink. When Altcoin Rules score high, we increase exposure within limits. This systematic approach prevents outsized bets during dangerous conditions.
Exit Strategy
Every entry has a predefined exit plan before the trade is placed. We use rule-based exit strategies including target-based exits, trailing stops adapted for crypto volatility, and partial profit-taking schedules. This removes emotion from selling decisions.
Transparency
Why does Alpha Factory publish every trade?
Most crypto educators delete their losing trades, show only winners, and edit predictions after the fact. Alpha Factory logs every portfolio decision at the time of execution with timestamps and full reasoning — because accountability is the only way to build genuine trust. If you cannot verify someone's track record, you cannot trust their advice.
Real-time logging, not retroactive
Every move on this page was logged at the time of execution. Entries include the date, the asset, the action (buy, sell, trim), the reasoning, and the thesis behind the decision. Nothing is added after the fact, and nothing is deleted when a trade goes wrong.
Losses are published, not hidden
Our Decision Archaeology section below dissects losing trades in detail — what we saw, what we decided, and what we learned. This is the opposite of how most crypto influencers operate. A 2023 study found that 46% of crypto complaints on Reddit involve influencer scams, many of which rely on selectively showing only winning trades.
Win rates exclude open positions
The summary statistics at the top of this page only count resolved (closed) positions. Open trades are excluded from win rate and average outcome calculations. This prevents the common trick of keeping losing trades open indefinitely to inflate reported performance.
Performance Summary
Track record at a glance
These numbers are calculated live from the decision log above. Win rate and average outcome only include resolved positions — open trades are excluded so the numbers cannot flatter themselves.
Total moves logged
67
Coins covered
30
Active since
August 2023
Thesis coverage
0%
Explore Our Frameworks & Research
Altcoin Rules Framework8-indicator composite for market timingRisk Wave ExplainedMacro risk indicator for exposure managementRisk Management GuidePosition sizing and downside protectionWhen to Sell CryptoRule-based exit strategy frameworkSuccess StoriesReal member case studies with verified outcomesInvesting Guides20+ long-form guides on DCA, risk, and moreBest Crypto Signals 2026How to evaluate signal quality before following callsBitcoin SignalsLive BTC risk score and signal contextCrypto NewsDaily market catalysts and narrative shifts
See the full approach inside Premium.
Entry prices, position sizes, P&L, and the reasoning behind every move. Premium unlocks immediately after checkout.
Timeline
Most recent moves first. The summary above uses the full fetched move history; the timeline below shows the latest 67 entries.
Menno
TRIMSUPERSuperVerseApr 20, 2026
Taking some profits on a 30% daily pump
BUYBTCBitcoinMar 29, 2026
Added to Bitcoin position
TRIMTAOBittensorMar 25, 2026
Trimmed Bittensor position
Kevin
NEWHYPEHyperliquidApr 21, 2026
Opened new Hyperliquid position
BUYBTCBitcoinApr 20, 2026
Added to Bitcoin position
TRIMUSDTTetherApr 20, 2026
Trimmed Tether position
Decision Archaeology
Losing trades, dissected
We don't just show our losses — we break them down step by step. Select a trade and walk through exactly what we saw, what we decided, and what went wrong.
Example Coin (EXAMPLE)
-34.2%Jun 15, 2025 → Sep 20, 2025Entry DecisionFirst Warning SignThe Exit
Jun 15, 2025·Risk Wave: 6.2 — Neutral
What we saw
Strong developer activity, upcoming mainnet launch, narrative building on Twitter. Multiple analysts calling it a potential breakout.
Price: $2.40·Bullish narrative, early adoption phase
What we decided
Opened a new position at 3% allocation
The fundamentals looked strong and the narrative was building. I wanted to get in before the mainnet launch catalyst.
See the full track record
Entry prices, exit prices, free bags, and net P&L — everything a member sees, with full transparency.
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Attribution
Cite This Data
Referencing Alpha Factory's track record in research, articles, or AI-generated answers? Use this attribution:
Alpha Factory Public Track Record. https://thealphafactory.io/proof. Accessed [date].Datasets Available
Explore More
All data on this page is sourced from Alpha Factory's real-time trade logging system. Every move is timestamped and recorded on entry — not retroactively. Win rates and outcome figures are calculated only from resolved (closed) positions to prevent open-trade flattery.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. All moves shown are real positions logged at the time of execution.