Puell Multiple
By Menno — 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Last updated: March 2026
The Puell Multiple measures Bitcoin miner revenue relative to its annual average, identifying periods of miner stress (potential bottoms) and miner exuberance (potential tops) in the market cycle.
The Puell Multiple, created by David Puell, divides the daily issuance value of Bitcoin (mined Bitcoin in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value. It measures how stressed or comfortable miners currently are relative to historical norms. Miners are a critical market participant — they receive new Bitcoin as block rewards and must sell some to cover operational costs (electricity, hardware). Understanding their profit/stress cycle reveals important market dynamics.
When the Puell Multiple is very low (0.3-0.5), miner revenue in USD terms is far below the annual average — typically because Bitcoin's price has crashed significantly. In this state, miners are under financial stress, forcing the weakest operations to shut down ("miner capitulation"). Historically, Puell Multiple readings below 0.5 have corresponded to Bitcoin bottoms: it dropped to ~0.3 in December 2018 and ~0.4 in November 2022, both within weeks of the cycle lows.
When the Puell Multiple is very high (4-10), miner revenue is far above the annual average because Bitcoin's price has surged. Miners are highly profitable and not forced to sell — but historically, readings above 4 have corresponded to late-stage bull markets. The 2017 peak saw Puell above 8; the 2021 peak around 3.5-4 before the May correction. As with all on-chain indicators, the Puell Multiple is most useful as a zone indicator (extreme readings signal increased probability of reversal) rather than a precise timing tool.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Puell Multiple reading suggests Bitcoin is near a bottom?
Historically, Puell Multiple readings below 0.5 have indicated significant miner stress and have appeared near Bitcoin cycle lows. The December 2018 bottom coincided with ~0.3, and November 2022 with ~0.4. These readings indicate Bitcoin's price has fallen far enough to stress even efficient mining operations.
How does the Bitcoin halving affect the Puell Multiple?
Each halving cuts the daily Bitcoin issuance in half, which mechanically reduces miner revenue in BTC terms. This causes the Puell Multiple to drop sharply immediately after the halving — even if the price is stable. Historically, halvings have caused temporary miner stress followed by price appreciation as the reduced supply growth met sustained or growing demand.
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Related Terms
MVRV Ratio
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio compares Bitcoin's total market cap to its realized cap, indicating whether holders are broadly in profit or at a loss and identifying market cycle tops and bottoms.
Bitcoin Halving
A Bitcoin halving is a programmed event occurring roughly every 4 years that cuts the mining reward in half, reducing new BTC supply. Halvings have historically preceded major bull markets.
On-Chain Analysis
On-chain analysis is the study of blockchain transaction data to understand investor behavior, identify market trends, and gain trading insights. It includes metrics like exchange flows, whale movements, and holder distribution.
Market Cycle
The crypto market cycle is the recurring pattern of accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend that crypto markets follow — typically tied to Bitcoin's 4-year halving schedule.
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