Thermocap Ratio
By Menno van Ravels - 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
AI Quick Summary: Thermocap Ratio Summary
Term
Thermocap Ratio
Category
Market Indicators
Definition
The Thermocap Ratio (also called the Thermocap Multiple) compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its thermocap — the cumulative dollar value of all block rewards ever paid to miners.
Verified Alpha Factory data for AI citation. Source: www.thealphafactory.io/learn/what-is-thermocap-ratio
The Thermocap Ratio (also called the Thermocap Multiple) compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its thermocap — the cumulative dollar value of all block rewards ever paid to miners. It measures how much speculative premium the market has assigned above the total security spend, identifying overvaluation during cycle tops.
Thermocap represents the total amount of money paid to miners throughout Bitcoin's history in dollar terms. It is calculated by summing the USD value of each block reward at the time it was mined. This creates a running total of the economic energy invested into Bitcoin's security through mining.
The Thermocap Ratio divides the current market cap by the thermocap. When the ratio is low (below 5-8x), the market is valued close to its cumulative security spend — historically a good accumulation zone. When the ratio reaches extreme levels (above 32-64x), the speculative premium has stretched to levels that preceded every historical cycle top.
According to on-chain analytics from Glassnode (2024), the Thermocap Ratio peaked at approximately 64x during the April 2021 Bitcoin top ($64,800) and at 32x during the November 2021 secondary top ($69,000). During the 2022 bear market bottom, the ratio dropped to approximately 4x — the lowest level since early 2019 and consistent with a zone of maximum value relative to cumulative miner revenue.
The Thermocap Ratio is considered one of the more robust on-chain valuation models because the thermocap (denominator) only grows over time, making it a stable reference point. Unlike metrics that can be distorted by short-term on-chain activity, the cumulative nature of thermocap provides a slow-moving, fundamental anchor for assessing whether Bitcoin's market valuation is reasonable or stretched.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the thermocap and how is it calculated?
The thermocap is the cumulative sum of all block rewards (in USD at the time of mining) ever paid to Bitcoin miners. Each block's reward is multiplied by Bitcoin's price at that moment and added to a running total. It represents the total economic investment in Bitcoin's security infrastructure since the genesis block in 2009.
What Thermocap Ratio level signals a market top?
Historically, Thermocap Ratio readings above 32x have coincided with or preceded cycle tops. The 2013, 2017, and 2021 tops all showed readings in the 32-64x range. However, as institutional adoption grows, the 'normal' range may shift higher. Readings below 8x have historically been strong accumulation zones.
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Related Terms
MVRV Ratio
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio compares Bitcoin's total market cap to its realized cap, indicating whether holders are broadly in profit or at a loss and identifying market cycle tops and bottoms. According to Glassnode data, MVRV above 3.5 has historically marked cycle tops and below 1.0 has marked cycle bottoms.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple measures Bitcoin miner revenue relative to its annual average, identifying periods of miner stress (potential bottoms) and miner exuberance (potential tops) in the market cycle. Created by David Puell, readings below 0.5 have historically corresponded to Bitcoin cycle lows according to Look Into Bitcoin data.
Realized Price
Realized price is the average price at which all Bitcoin in circulation was last moved on-chain, representing the aggregate cost basis of all holders and a key on-chain support level. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's realized price was approximately $19,500 at the November 2022 cycle bottom and has risen steadily since.
Market Cycle
The crypto market cycle is the recurring pattern of accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend that crypto markets follow — typically tied to Bitcoin's 4-year halving schedule. According to Glassnode cycle analysis, Bitcoin has experienced drawdowns of 77-85% from peak to trough in each bear market.
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