How to Read the Bi-Weekly RSI as a Crypto Cycle Indicator
By Menno — 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Last updated: March 2026
The bi-weekly (two-week) RSI is a momentum indicator that, when applied to Bitcoin's price chart, has historically reached oversold levels only at major market cycle bottoms. When it falls below 35, every instance to date has represented a high-probability accumulation zone. It is Menno's single most-cited macro confirmation signal.
Key Takeaways
- •The bi-weekly RSI filters out short-term noise and reflects macro cycle momentum — the timeframe that matters for identifying major bottoms.
- •Every confirmed major Bitcoin bottom in recorded history has been accompanied by a bi-weekly RSI reading below 36.
- •A sharp price bounce with the bi-weekly RSI at 50+ is far less reliable than one occurring when the indicator is in the low 30s.
- •The indicator does not predict the exact bottom — it identifies the zone where accumulation has historically been rewarded.
- •Combine the bi-weekly RSI with the Fear & Greed Index, the 200-week moving average, and altcoin risk scores for higher-confidence signals.
What the RSI Is and Why the Bi-Weekly Timeframe Matters
RSI stands for Relative Strength Index. It is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 typically indicate an asset is overbought; readings below 30 indicate oversold conditions.
The timeframe you apply the RSI to changes its meaning dramatically. Daily RSI oscillates constantly and produces many false signals in a volatile market like crypto. Weekly RSI smooths the noise but still reacts to intermediate swings. The bi-weekly (two-week) RSI filters out almost everything except the biggest macro cycle moves — which is exactly what you need to identify major bottoms and tops.
Because each data point represents two weeks of price action, the bi-weekly RSI moves slowly. When it reaches an extreme low reading, it means the market has been under sustained selling pressure for months, not just days. That distinction is what makes it a credible cycle indicator rather than a short-term trade signal.
The Track Record: Every Major Bottom Has Shown This Signal
When Menno says the bi-weekly RSI "has been always so freaking accurate," he is referring to a specific pattern: the indicator has entered oversold territory — roughly 34–36 or lower — only at confirmed major cycle bottoms for Bitcoin.
In early 2026, Bitcoin's bi-weekly RSI sat at 34. The previous time it reached a similar level was at the 2022 bear market bottom around $15,500–$16,000. Before that, it appeared at the COVID crash bottom in March 2020. And before that, at the 2018–2019 bear market floor.
This does not mean every reading near 34 will produce an immediate reversal. The market may grind sideways or dip slightly further before recovering. But the historical win rate for DCA-buying into Bitcoin when this indicator is this low has been, in Menno's words, 100%. Not a guarantee — but a signal you reject at your peril.
Comparing the Bi-Weekly RSI to Short-Term BouncesPremium
One of the most practical uses of the bi-weekly RSI is distinguishing real bottoms from dead-cat bounces. In a downtrend, there are frequent sharp rallies of 10–20% that feel like recoveries but reverse quickly. The difference between a dead-cat bounce and a genuine accumulation zone often shows up in this indicator.
How to Use the Bi-Weekly RSI Alongside Other SignalsPremium
Included with the full lesson.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where can I find the bi-weekly RSI for Bitcoin?▾
Any charting platform that supports custom timeframes — such as TradingView — will let you add an RSI indicator to a Bitcoin chart and set the candle interval to 2 weeks (2W). Set the RSI period to 14 for standard readings.
What RSI reading signals a bottom zone?▾
Historically, readings below 36 on the bi-weekly RSI have coincided with major Bitcoin cycle lows. The lower the reading, the more severe the oversold condition and the stronger the historical correlation with subsequent recovery.
Does the bi-weekly RSI work for altcoins too?▾
It works best for high-liquidity assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum where there is long price history. For smaller altcoins, the limited data makes the indicator less statistically reliable. Menno primarily uses it as a macro confirmation for the overall market cycle, not for individual altcoin timing.
What happens if the bi-weekly RSI goes even lower — to 25 or 20?▾
It would represent the most extreme oversold reading in crypto history. That would be a historically unprecedented signal. While it cannot be ruled out, every cycle to date has found a bottom before reaching those levels. If it did occur, it would most likely represent an even stronger accumulation signal.
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Get Full AccessNot financial advice. All content is for educational purposes only. Crypto investing involves significant risk. Always do your own research.