When to Sell Crypto: Using Risk Levels to Plan Your Exit
By Menno — 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Last updated: March 2026
The best time to plan your crypto exit is before you buy, not when greed is at its peak. By pre-defining sell zones based on historical risk levels — typically 70–100 on a 0–100 scale — and using a DCA-out strategy that spreads selling across the zone, you remove the emotional pressure of "is this the top?" and capture the majority of each cycle's upside.
Key Takeaways
- •Plan your exit before you enter — euphoria at the top makes it psychologically almost impossible to sell without a pre-written plan.
- •A two-zone exit strategy — 30% at risk score 70–80, 70% at score 80–100 — captures the majority of upside without requiring top-tick precision.
- •Running an exit simulation before investing turns abstract hope into a concrete projected return, making it easier to follow your plan under pressure.
- •DCA-out spreads selling over the high-risk zone rather than trying to time a single peak price.
- •When the community is most excited and the risk score is highest, that is exactly when your sell discipline matters most.
Why Most Investors Never Actually Sell
The entry gets all the attention in crypto conversations. When to buy, what price, which coins — these dominate every community discussion. The exit is treated as something you figure out later, when prices are high. That instinct is catastrophically wrong.
When prices are high and sentiment is euphoric, selling feels like the stupidest thing you can do. Everything is going up, the community is celebrating, new people are pouring in, and your portfolio looks incredible. Your brain interprets all of this as a signal to hold more. That emotional state is the exact opposite of what good risk management requires.
The solution is to plan your exit before euphoria arrives — ideally before you make your first purchase. "Most people are missing a plan," Menno says. Having a pre-defined exit prevents you from making a fresh emotional decision at the worst possible moment.
What a Risk-Based Sell Zone Looks Like
Rather than trying to pick the top — which is impossible — a risk-based exit strategy targets a range. Historical data on most altcoins shows that risk scores above 70 correspond to the phase of a cycle where selling has historically been rewarded. Above 80, the risk of holding significantly outweighs the potential for further upside.
Menno's standard approach divides the exit into two layers:
This two-layer approach ensures you never sell everything at the bottom and never hold everything through the collapse from the top.
Running an Exit Simulation Before You InvestPremium
One of the most powerful things you can do before deploying capital is simulate your exit. Input the coins you plan to buy, the amount you intend to invest, and your planned DCA schedule. The exit simulator then uses historical average sell-zone prices — based on where each coin has historically traded when its risk score was in the 70–100 range — to show your estimated return.
The Biggest Exit Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemPremium
Included with the full lesson.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I sell all my crypto at once?▾
Rarely. Selling all at once requires perfect timing of the top — which is impossible to do consistently. A DCA-out approach that sells in tranches across a defined high-risk zone captures the bulk of the cycle's gains without the pressure of making a single high-stakes decision.
What if the coin keeps going up after I start selling?▾
That is expected and acceptable. If you sell 30% at score 75 and the coin doubles from there, you still have 70% of your position participating in the move. The goal is not to sell at the absolute peak — the goal is to exit most of your position in the historically high-risk zone before the reversal comes.
How do I know what price corresponds to a risk score of 80?▾
The risk score is calculated from current metrics, not mapped to a fixed price. As the coin's RSI increases, its distance from all-time high shrinks, and market sentiment rises, the score climbs. You monitor the score over time rather than targeting a specific dollar price.
Is it okay to hold some coins long term without selling?▾
Yes, with a clear-eyed view of what long-term means. Bitcoin held across multiple cycles has produced strong returns despite interim drawdowns of 80%+. For most altcoins, holding across cycles has historically destroyed capital as projects lose relevance. The sell framework matters most for altcoins.
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Get Full AccessNot financial advice. All content is for educational purposes only. Crypto investing involves significant risk. Always do your own research.