Bitcoin Holds Steady as PCE Data Meets Expectations—$80K Target Still in Play

Bitcoin circled $71,000 at Thursday's Wall Street open after US inflation data delivered no surprises, leaving traders parsing liquidity clusters and positioning for the next major crypto move.

PCE Data Confirms Market Consensus

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, came in exactly where markets expected it. Core PCE year-on-year landed at 3% for February, with monthly core PCE at 0.4%, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data provided relief alongside ongoing US-Iran ceasefire discussions, but here's the catch: this February reading doesn't yet capture the geopolitical shock to oil supplies.

Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter flagged the timing issue on X: "This marks the final pre-Iran War PCE inflation datapoint." Translation? Markets are essentially flying blind until tomorrow's CPI release hits, which will finally show March data and any oil-price fallout from regional tensions.

TradingView data showed cooling BTC price volatility after local highs near $73,000 the day prior. The lack of dramatic reaction from bitcoin suggests traders are waiting for more concrete catalysts. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues showing zero expectations for interest-rate cuts in 2026, which keeps the macro backdrop tight for risk assets.

The Real Test Comes Friday

Economist Mohamed El-Erian made a sharp point: while PCE inflation is the Fed's favorite measure, Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) release matters more this week. "PCE covers February and not March," he noted on X. That distinction is crucial because CPI is particularly susceptible to oil-price swings—exactly the variable we're unsure about given current geopolitical uncertainty.

Liquidity Clusters Point to Next Moves

Pseudonymous trader LP broke down the technical picture using order-book analysis. On the higher time frame, some upside low-leverage liquidation clusters have cleared, but "sizeable liquidity still remains around 73K and above the highs near 76K," according to their X post. On the downside, liquidity is building around 69K and 64K. The message: both directions remain viable for bitcoin price action.

"With price still range-bound, both sides remain in play," LP explained. "If the 69–68K level holds, price is likely to push higher and target the remaining upside liquidity around 73K."

Traders See $80K on the Horizon

Crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe remains constructive on the setup. "As long as Bitcoin continues to hold these ranges, there's a strong new upwards leg on the horizon towards $80K," he summarized, keeping that key psychological target alive. This aligns with broader market intelligence suggesting that breakouts typically occur after consolidation phases like we're seeing now.