Bitcoin Plunges to Weekly Lows as $10K Bear Case Gains Traction Amid Oil Shock

Bitcoin (BTC) is catching heat from multiple angles. On Thursday, the crypto market took a fresh beating alongside US equities as oil-supply jitters rippled through Wall Street, with one prominent analyst now openly discussing a potential reversion to $10,000 BTC levels.

The $10K Warning

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, isn't mincing words. In his latest crypto analysis, McGlone flagged the possibility that Bitcoin "may be reverting" to $10,000—a level that carries historical weight in the market's collective memory.

"Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting," McGlone wrote on X. His reasoning? The $10,000 mark holds particular significance as the price point where Bitcoin futures markets first launched nearly a decade ago. When major technical levels align with historical precedent, traders pay attention.

Price Action: Week-to-Date Lows Hit

The warning came as BTC/USD dipped below $66,000 to hit its lowest point for the week. Market intelligence from TradingView confirmed the downward momentum, with Bitcoin unable to hold ground as macro conditions deteriorated.

The pressure wasn't isolated to crypto. Over $400 million in crypto liquidations hit the market in just 24 hours, per CoinGlass data—a telltale sign of leveraged positions getting forcibly unwound across the sector.

Oil Spike Triggers Risk-Off Cascade

The catalyst? Oil concerns are dominating the macro narrative. WTI crude rocketed to $114 per barrel as the US trading session opened, driven by supply uncertainties through the Strait of Hormuz. That's the kind of move that sends shockwaves through everything correlated to inflation expectations.

The Nasdaq Composite Index crashed more than 2% at Thursday's open, dragging equities down with it. Bitcoin's correlation to US stocks meant BTC traders caught the same downdraft. Here's where it gets worse for inflation expectations: trading resource The Kobeissi Letter calculated that if oil prices sustain at current levels for two months, US inflation could spike to 3.6%—the highest reading since September 2023.

Prediction platform Kalshi showed the market is increasingly skeptical about oil traffic normalizing through the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon, with declining odds for a return to regular supply flows this year.

The Trump Wild Card

Volatility escalated further after President Trump's address to the nation, where markets had hoped for deescalation signals. They didn't get them. Instead, Adam Kobeissi, founder of The Kobeissi Letter, called the geopolitical situation "the most puzzling part of the Iran War yet."

"It began with Iran's President stating they have 'no enmity' towards Americans and ended with President Trump escalating the Iran War, the exact opposite of what we have seen over the last 2 weeks from both sides," Kobeissi noted. That kind of unpredictability makes it harder for traders to price in risk, which typically means volatility stays elevated and capital stays cautious.