Congressional Pressure Mounts as CFTC Faces Accountability on Prediction Market Insider Trading

Seven US House members are calling out the CFTC for what they see as regulatory gaps in policing insider trading on prediction markets—and they want answers by mid-April.

The Letter: Democrats Back Federal Authority, Question Execution

The House delegation sent a pointed letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig on Monday, affirming the commission's jurisdictional authority over prediction markets under the Commodities Exchange Act while simultaneously questioning why that authority isn't being deployed effectively. The lawmakers acknowledged the CFTC's right to "apply its rules and regulations for the purpose of preventing evasion of the act's underlying swap provisions," essentially validating Selig's interpretation that prediction market platforms fall within federal oversight.

But here's the tension: while Democrats support the CFTC's position on jurisdiction, they're hammering the agency for failing to police what they call "morally obscene" event contracts. The letter specifically flagged suspicious trading activity linked to US military actions in Iran and Venezuela—scenarios where suspicious trades appeared suspiciously timed to actual geopolitical outcomes. "Such corrupt trades deserve swift and decisive oversight," the lawmakers wrote, adding that tolerating these contracts raises "troubling concerns about the Commission's desire and capacity to fulfill a global regulatory role."

The seven representatives set an April 15 deadline for Selig to respond to six specific questions about the CFTC's enforcement strategy.

The Regulatory Battlefield: Federal vs. State Turf Wars

This letter arrives amid ongoing legal skirmishes over prediction market regulation. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are caught in crossfire between federal crypto regulators and state gaming authorities, each claiming jurisdiction over event contracts and trading activity.

State gaming commissions have filed lawsuits claiming these platforms are illegally offering sports bets. The CFTC, meanwhile, maintains that event contracts qualify as swaps under federal commodities law. Recent legal developments have favored the platforms: the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit affirmed a lower court's decision blocking New Jersey gaming authorities from pursuing enforcement actions against Kalshi. Two of three circuit judges agreed the company had a "reasonable chance of success" arguing that federal commodities laws preempted state authority.

The Enforcement Response: CFTC Draws a Line

CFTC enforcement director David Miller has acknowledged the agency is monitoring for insider trading activity. However, his recent comments suggest a selective approach: the commission will pursue cases "against those who tip or trade with misappropriated information," but won't burn resources on "trivial" matters.

That nuanced stance may not satisfy the House members pushing for tighter oversight on prediction market trading behavior. The question now is whether the CFTC will expand its enforcement posture or maintain its current selective approach.