Ethereum's Rare Undervaluation Signal Flashing: Can ETH Break Through to $2,500?

Ether is flashing a critical buy signal that hasn't lit up since 2022—and the crypto market intelligence is pointing toward a potential rally to $2,500 if current momentum holds.

The Setup: Price Structure Getting Traction

ETH just cleared the $2,150 resistance with a sharp 6.33% move, and the technical setup is looking increasingly bullish. We're watching the daily chart structure strengthen as bulls maintain control. The path forward? A retest of March highs near $2,385, followed by a move toward the $2,475–$2,635 fair-value gap—a zone that's acting like a magnet for buyers.

What's notable is how $2,150 has been tested repeatedly over the past two months. Each retest shows weaker selling pressure, suggesting the resistance is finally cracking. On the four-hour timeframe, Ether is holding higher lows while working to break into the critical $2,250–$2,300 range.

Spot Demand Driving the Action

The spot market is doing the heavy lifting here. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) data for spot Ethereum hit 184,500 ETH in April—elevated levels that reflect serious accumulation interest. This isn't some leveraged futures pump; real money is stacking ETH.

Derivatives traders are gradually joining the party, with futures CVD trending upward to 4.36 million ETH. The positive funding rate sitting at 0.0052 confirms a long bias is building. However, open interest remains range-bound near 4.75 million ETH, signaling limited leverage. That's actually healthy—it means we could see a cleaner breakout without the risk of a massive liquidation cascade.

The Macro Indicator Screaming "Undervalued"

Here's where it gets interesting for our crypto analysis: the Capriole Macro Index Oscillator is flashing a reading of -2.42—a level we haven't seen since the bear market. This metric is a rare capitulation indicator that tracks investment behavior, cycle positioning, and onchain data.

Previous signals from this index have been eerily accurate:

• •June-July 2022: Reading hit -2.2 as ETH bottomed near $1,000–$1,200
• •October-November 2023: Drop to -1 preceded a breakout after ETH fell to $1,500
• •April 2025: Another negative reading marked a local bottom at $1,500, launching the rally above $4,000

The current setup mirrors those capitulation phases. Ether has crashed from $4,800 highs down to $2,100, while the oscillator sits near cycle lows. This is the kind of technical confluence that makes traders pay attention.

The Taker Buy Signal

Analyst crypto sunmoon flagged another bullish indicator: the ETH taker buy/sell ratio has been trending upward for four to five months. Combined with the current drawdown, the structure mirrors the setup that preceded the April-May 2025 rally. That pattern recognition suggests we could be at the inflection point for a similar recovery phase.

The downside risk is becoming asymmetrical. With ETH in a rare undervalued zone according to macro metrics, limited leverage in derivatives markets, and sustained spot demand, the risk-reward setup favors buyers right now.