Will Macro Headwinds Block Bitcoin's Path to $90K? Daily Trading Setup for April 13
Bitcoin and major altcoins are flashing bullish technical signals, but geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty remain wild cards. Here's where we see the key levels playing out across crypto and traditional markets.
Bitcoin and major altcoins are flashing bullish technical signals, but geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty remain wild cards. Here's where we see the key levels playing out across crypto and traditional markets.
The Macro Reality Check
Bitcoin reclaimed $72,000 as bulls pressed toward multi-month range highs, but the path forward isn't guaranteed. Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin laid out what needs to happen for BTC to reach $90,000: geopolitical tensions must ease, bringing oil prices down to $80, and economic data has to soften to ease stagflation concerns gripping US markets.
That's a tall order. CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko echoed similar caution, telling us the short-term sentiment "remains fragile and heavily macro-driven, especially by oil, the dollar and inflation expectations." The good news? Ko doesn't expect elevated oil prices to persist given supply-demand fundamentals. On the medium-term horizon, that's a tailwind for crypto.
Macro analyst Jordi Visser outlined the critical thresholds on the Anthony Pompliano podcast: BTC needs to break above $76,000 and Ethereum needs to clear $2,400 for a sustainable move to kick off.
S&P 500: Corrective Phase May Be Over
The S&P 500 gapped up and closed above its 50-day simple moving average (6,761) on Wednesday—a signal the correction could be exhausted. The 20-day EMA (6,657) has turned up, and the RSI sits in positive territory, giving bulls a modest edge.
Support is forming at the 20-day EMA. If buyers hold that level, they'll target the all-time high of 7,002. Break below it and we're likely looking at a range-bound market as bears defend higher prices.
US Dollar Index: Stuck in No-Man's Land
The DXY is caught between sellers trying to push through the 50-day SMA (98.67) and bulls holding ground. Any rebound will face resistance at the 20-day EMA (99.34). A breakdown below 50-day SMA combined with a close below the 20-day EMA signals continued range oscillation between 95.55 and 100.54. Break above 20-day EMA and bulls could challenge the 100.54 resistance again.
Bitcoin: $76,000 Is the Inflection Point
BTC pulled back to its 20-day EMA ($70,209) with bears fiercely defending the $74,000-$76,000 zone. The bounce Monday signals bullish buying on dips. A retest of critical $76,000 resistance is likely—and this level matters: a close above it completes a bullish ascending triangle, opening the door for a rally to $84,000.
Alpha Take
We're at an inflection point where technical strength is real, but macro headwinds are legitimate. BTC needs $76,000 to hold as support for a credible run toward $84,000+, while a clean break requires the geopolitical and inflation narrative to shift. Watch the S&P 500 and DXY closely—crypto market intelligence shows these traditional assets are driving short-term sentiment more than on-chain fundamentals right now. Position accordingly.
Originally reported by
CoinTelegraph
Not financial advice. Crypto investing involves significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research.