Will Macro Headwinds Block Bitcoin's Path to $90K? Daily Trading Setup for April 13

Bitcoin and major altcoins are flashing bullish technical signals, but geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty remain wild cards. Here's where we see the key levels playing out across crypto and traditional markets.

The Macro Reality Check

Bitcoin reclaimed $72,000 as bulls pressed toward multi-month range highs, but the path forward isn't guaranteed. Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin laid out what needs to happen for BTC to reach $90,000: geopolitical tensions must ease, bringing oil prices down to $80, and economic data has to soften to ease stagflation concerns gripping US markets.

That's a tall order. CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko echoed similar caution, telling us the short-term sentiment "remains fragile and heavily macro-driven, especially by oil, the dollar and inflation expectations." The good news? Ko doesn't expect elevated oil prices to persist given supply-demand fundamentals. On the medium-term horizon, that's a tailwind for crypto.

Macro analyst Jordi Visser outlined the critical thresholds on the Anthony Pompliano podcast: BTC needs to break above $76,000 and Ethereum needs to clear $2,400 for a sustainable move to kick off.

S&P 500: Corrective Phase May Be Over

The S&P 500 gapped up and closed above its 50-day simple moving average (6,761) on Wednesday—a signal the correction could be exhausted. The 20-day EMA (6,657) has turned up, and the RSI sits in positive territory, giving bulls a modest edge.

Support is forming at the 20-day EMA. If buyers hold that level, they'll target the all-time high of 7,002. Break below it and we're likely looking at a range-bound market as bears defend higher prices.

US Dollar Index: Stuck in No-Man's Land

The DXY is caught between sellers trying to push through the 50-day SMA (98.67) and bulls holding ground. Any rebound will face resistance at the 20-day EMA (99.34). A breakdown below 50-day SMA combined with a close below the 20-day EMA signals continued range oscillation between 95.55 and 100.54. Break above 20-day EMA and bulls could challenge the 100.54 resistance again.

Bitcoin: $76,000 Is the Inflection Point

BTC pulled back to its 20-day EMA ($70,209) with bears fiercely defending the $74,000-$76,000 zone. The bounce Monday signals bullish buying on dips. A retest of critical $76,000 resistance is likely—and this level matters: a close above it completes a bullish ascending triangle, opening the door for a rally to $84,000.

The bearish scenario? Break below the moving averages and BTC drops to the support line, shifting momentum to sellers.

Ethereum: $2,400 Breakout Could Trigger $2,800 Rally

ETH pulled back to its 20-day EMA ($2,154)—a crucial support zone. A strong rebound signals bulls are active and improves odds of clearing the $2,386 resistance. Above that, $2,800 is the target. Conversely, a break below moving averages means consolidation between $1,916 and $2,386.

BNB: Buyers Struggling at Moving Averages

BNB can't push decisively above its moving averages, indicating bear resistance. If sellers pull BNB below $570, the next downside target is $500. If price bounces from current levels or $570 support, bulls could regain control.