XRP Faces Critical Support Test as Profitable Supply Hits 17-Month Lows

XRP is flashing serious warning signals. With only 43% of the token's supply in profit—levels we haven't seen since November 2024—the crypto asset is primed for a potential breakdown toward $1.10 in the weeks ahead.

The Capitulation Signal Nobody Wants to See

Here's what matters: when profitable supply dips below 50%, history shows us it's not pretty. We're talking about the transition from cautious selling to full-blown panic mode. The last two times XRP hit these lows, the damage was brutal.

Between January and June 2022, XRP cratered from $0.75 to $0.30 as profitable supply plummeted to just 20%. Go back to 2018, and you'll find an even darker picture—a 70% crash with profitable supply hitting 15%. We're not quite there yet at 43%, but the trajectory is unmistakable.

The real killer? Investors who bought above $2 over the past year have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M–$110M per day since November 2025, according to Glassnode. That's not noise—that's institutional and retail hemorrhaging happening in real-time. Crypto Town Hall summed it up perfectly: this reflects "widespread holder drawdowns, often seen during late-stage corrections," the kind that trigger sharp drops as capitulation accelerates.

The MVRV Metric Is Screaming Danger

Santiment's data makes this even starker. The Mean Value to Realized Value (MVRV) for XRP traders just hit its lowest point since the FTX crash in November 2022. Average wallets active on the XRP Ledger over the past year? Down 41% on their investments.

But here's the counterintuitive part Santiment flagged: "Significantly negative average returns imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding to your XRP positions, due to the fact that competing traders are already in severe 'blood in the streets' territory." Translation? The pain is already baked in for many holders, which could either signal capitulation completion or more forced selling.

The Technical Picture Confirms the Downside Risk

On the daily chart, XRP is breaking down from a textbook rising wedge pattern—a bearish setup where price gets compressed between two upward-sloping trendlines before reversing sharply. The token slipped below the wedge's lower trendline at $1.37 on March 27 and is now retesting near the 50-day simple moving average around $1.38.

If bulls can't reclaim this level, the measured target lands near $1.10—roughly 16% lower from current prices. That's not speculation; it's technical math. Breaking below $1.27 opens the door to $1.11 and the psychological $1.00 level.