XRP Flashes Textbook Reversal Signals—But $1.30 Support Is Make-or-Break

Technical indicators are screaming potential cycle bottom for XRP as traders hold their breath around critical support levels. We're watching whether the momentum can sustain here or if bears push this further down.

The Technical Setup Looks Compelling

XRP is trading around $1.35 Monday morning, and here's what's catching our attention: the weekly RSI just hit oversold territory at 29 on March 2—a level that historically marked macro bottoms for this asset. Now it's recovered to 34, and that matters because the last time we saw this extreme reading, XRP was preparing for serious accumulation phases.

The MACD is equally intriguing. It's dropped to its lowest level ever and is about to produce a bullish cross—exactly the kind of signal that preceded those massive 74%-230% rallies we saw in 2022 and mid-2024. When that oversold RSI combines with a MACD buy signal, you get the textbook reversal pattern.

"Weekly RSI on $XRP just hit one of its lowest levels in years," analyst Arthur noted on X, questioning whether this is indeed signaling a long-term bottom. Fellow analyst Cryptoinsightuk pointed out that the last time we saw RSI this oversold was July 2022—which marked the exact bottom. History rhymes, sometimes.

The Bitcoin Relationship Tells a Story

XRP/BTC deserves attention here. The ratio is stabilizing at the bottom of a long consolidation range with a higher high printed on the daily chart. That suggests "there is some life at the bottom of this range," according to technical analysts tracking the pair.

June 2025 was the last time XRP bottomed against Bitcoin at these levels—and that marked the beginning of a 56% XRP/BTC rally accompanied by a 92% XRP price surge to $3.66. We're not saying history repeats, but it's worth noting.

Beyond technicals, whale accumulation and elevated exchange outflows are reinforcing the longer-term crypto analysis thesis for XRP. Smart money appears to be positioning.

The Critical Support Zone

Here's the hard reality: XRP must hold $1.27-$1.30 to avoid a deeper correction. As analyst Egrag Crypto put it, "this is where the market chooses direction." It's not abstract—nearly 500 million XRP changed hands around this price level according to cost basis distribution data.

If bulls defend this zone successfully, expect a grind higher toward $1.61. But break below $1.30, and the next line of defense sits at $1.15-$1.12, where the 200-week simple moving average lives. If that cracks, XRP faces a measured bear flag target of $0.80—a 42% drop from current levels.