By Menno van Ravels - 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Last reviewed:
Premium tier · $49/mo
Risk Wave Pricing
Risk Wave — Composite Crypto Risk Indicator costs $49/mo or $399/year on the Premium plan (the same amounts in euros in the euro area). Included at this tier: Daily composite score with eight-input breakdown, Five-year historical chart with regime zones shaded, Phase-transition alerts via email and Discord. The full feature list and the upgrade path to the next tier are detailed below so the total cost of the workflow is clear before any commitment.
Reviewed · Alpha Factory Risk Wave
Monthly
$49/mo
Billed monthly. Cancel any time. Best for verifying the workflow before committing to a longer term.
Annual
Save $189 / 32%$399/yr
One payment for twelve months of access on the Premium tier. Works out to roughly $33/month.
Premium tier includes
- Daily composite score with eight-input breakdown
- Five-year historical chart with regime zones shaded
- Phase-transition alerts via email and Discord
- Exposure-ladder calculator tied to portfolio size
- API access for members building custom dashboards
Need a $0 starting point?
Risk Wave is a premium-tier tool because the underlying data and compute carry a real cost. If the workflow doesn't yet justify the spend, the Alpha Factory free tools cover the same territory at a lower fidelity and no charge — a practical on-ramp before upgrading.
Browse free toolsStart using Risk Wave
Open the tool directly to get hands-on, or review the full pricing page for the exact upgrade path and what each tier above Premium unlocks.
Frequently asked questions
What exactly does Risk Wave measure?
Risk Wave measures the current risk regime of the crypto market on a 0-to-100 scale, where low numbers mean risk-off (capitulation, fear, forward returns historically strong) and high numbers mean risk-on (euphoria, greed, forward returns historically weak). The composite combines eight independent inputs — BTC dominance, macro flow, ETH/BTC, Fear & Greed, stablecoin ratios, funding rates, realized volatility, and liquidations — so that no single signal can dominate the reading.
How often does the Risk Wave score update?
Once per day, after the 00:00 UTC daily candle closes. Intraday moves in individual inputs do not trigger a score update, because the composite is designed for allocation decisions that play out over weeks to months, not intraday trades. The dashboard shows the last update timestamp and the next scheduled refresh.
Is Risk Wave a buy or sell signal?
No. Risk Wave is a regime indicator, not a trade signal. The score tells members which regime the market is in so they can size positions appropriately — it does not say 'buy BTC at this price.' Members pair Risk Wave with Alpha Scan (which picks individual vehicles) and with personal entry/exit rules to turn the regime read into actual trades.
Which of the eight inputs matters most?
No single input dominates by design — that is the point of a composite. In practice, funding rates and stablecoin ratios tend to lead regime transitions at tops, while Fear & Greed and liquidations tend to lead at bottoms. Members who want more granularity can inspect the per-input breakdown on the Risk Wave dashboard and weight their own reading accordingly.
Has Risk Wave been backtested?
Yes, across two full crypto cycles (2018-2022 and 2022-present). The composite score printing below 30 has preceded 90-day forward BTC returns averaging roughly 3-5x the readings from scores above 70. Full backtest methodology and regime-by-regime decomposition is available to premium members inside the Risk Wave dashboard.
Do I need to understand all eight inputs to use Risk Wave?
No. The headline composite score and its regime zone are designed to be actionable on their own. The per-input breakdown is available for members who want to understand why the score is where it is — which is useful during ambiguous neutral regimes — but members who just read the headline score and size positions to the regime ladder capture most of the value.