Indicator Scoreboard: how the free ranking works

Bitcoin has many cycle indicators, and they often disagree. The Indicator Scoreboard answers a simple question: which of them has lined up best with the big turning points of past cycles? It is a short, public leaderboard you can read without an account.

The page lists the finalists of the Cycle Pivot League, with their rank, their category and, for the top 2, their accuracy. It is the free window into the Indicator Tournament, which is the full tool for signed-in members. A short note under the list adds the tournament's own finding for the leader.

Each row is one finalist. The circle holds its rank, then comes its name and category (for example an on-chain measure or a price-based one). For ranks 1 and 2 the right-hand side shows an accuracy percentage. For ranks 3 to 5 it says the number is for members only.

The line at the top of the page repeats the current number one and its accuracy, and the header of the list shows how many indicators were tested and the date the data was generated. That date is the date of the last tournament run, not today's date.

Every indicator in the pool is tested against the same six past pivots: the cycle tops of 2013, 2017 and 2021 and the cycle bottoms of 2015, 2018 and 2022. The tournament runs in rounds. Round 1 scores all 31 indicators, 17 move on to round 2, near-duplicates are removed, and 11 distinct finalists are left. A final step cuts these to a Top 5.

Removing duplicates matters. Two measures from the same family, such as two on-chain valuation ratios, can carry almost the same information. The weaker copy is dropped for redundancy, not for being wrong, so the ranking rewards indicators that add something new. You can read the full method in our Indicator Tournament explainer.

The ranking is a frozen result of the last run. It is not recalculated every day, and the page itself only refreshes its copy about once an hour. The accuracy figures are in-sample backtest scores, and the page labels them that way. For background on the testing idea, see the glossary entry on backtesting.

Accuracy is the tournament's score for how closely an indicator matched the six past pivots, taking into account how cleanly and how early its signal fired. A higher number means a closer match to those six moments.

It is a record of the past. It does not say how an indicator will behave at the next top or bottom. The rank is set in the tournament's final stage, so it is not simply the accuracy numbers sorted from high to low. This is also our own scoring method, so the same indicator can look different on another site that tests it another way.

Yes. The page has a ready-made embed code that places a compact version of the scoreboard on your own site. The embedded version shows the same finalists, the same free-tier numbers and the date of the last run, and it links back to the scoreboard page.

Embedding does not unlock anything extra. Ranks 3 to 5 still show only a Premium label, and the blended score is not part of it. The embed page itself is not meant to be found in search, only the main scoreboard page is.

Keep these in mind before you read anything into the ranking.

A made-up example. You open the scoreboard and see that the top indicator has a high accuracy and the second one is a bit lower. You notice they come from different categories, which tells you the two are not just copies of each other.

You then open the Bitcoin Cycle Chart to see where the current cycle sits next to earlier ones, and read the Indicator Tournament explainer to see how the full ranking works. The scoreboard helped you choose which indicators to study. It did not tell you what to do.

The scoreboard page, this explainer and the embed code are free for everyone, with no account needed. You see the top 2 finalists with their exact accuracy.

Ranks 3 to 5, the full 31-indicator bracket, the blended 0 to 100 buy score and the score history are part of the Indicator Tournament tool for members. See pricing for what is included today.