Indicator Scoreboard
Which crypto indicator actually works? #1 right now: RHODL Ratio with 88% accuracy (backtest, in-sample). Every indicator here is backtested against the same six historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms since 2013.
By Menno van Ravels - 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Cycle Pivot League
31 indicators tested · last tournament run 2026-06-05
- 188% accuracy backtest, in-sample
RHODL Ratio
On-chain Valuation
- 285% accuracy backtest, in-sample
Log Regression Band
Price Geometry
- 3Premium · members only
2W RSI
Momentum
- 4Premium · members only
AHR999
On-chain Valuation
- 5Premium · members only
MVRV Z-score
On-chain Valuation
The most reliable two-sided cycle caller in the pool: the only on-chain valuation metric that did NOT fade at the difficult 2021 top, while still printing clean sub-20 bottoms. Age-cohort weighting gives it genuine orthogonality from the raw realized-value family.
Free preview: top-2 finalists with exact accuracy. Ranks 3-5, the full 31-indicator bracket and the live 0-100 buy-zone score are in the member Indicator Tournament.
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Free to embed — the ranking updates when the tournament is run again. Please keep the attribution link.
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How the Scoreboard Is Built
Instead of trusting a single indicator by reputation, the Indicator Tournament runs a pool of Bitcoin cycle indicators through a multi-round, multi-agent backtest against six historical pivots: the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycle tops, and the 2015, 2018 and 2022 cycle bottoms. Indicators that fire redundantly with a stronger sibling from the same family (on-chain valuation metrics like MVRV and RHODL, for example) are dropped for redundancy, not accuracy, so the final ranking rewards indicators that add genuinely new information, not just another copy of the same signal.
The result above is the current top of that ranking. For the full picture — every indicator in the pool, the live 0-100 buy-zone score, and the score-history chart — see the member Indicator Tournament. Pair either view with the free Bitcoin Risk Wave for a decision framework, or the Bitcoin Cycle Chart to see the current cycle plotted against every prior one.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are these indicators ranked?
Every indicator in the pool is backtested against the same ground truth: the 2013, 2017 and 2021 Bitcoin cycle tops, and the 2015, 2018 and 2022 cycle bottoms. A multi-agent tournament scores each indicator round by round, drops redundant duplicates from the same family, and the survivors are ranked by how consistently they called those six pivots.
What does the accuracy percentage mean?
It is the indicator's hit rate against the six historical cycle pivots the tournament tests, weighted for how cleanly and how early each call fired. It is a backward-looking backtest score, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Is the full ranking free?
The top-2 finalists and their exact accuracy are free and shown here. Ranks 3-5, the full 31-indicator bracket, the blended 0-100 buy-zone score and the live score history are part of the Alpha Factory Indicator Tournament tool for members.
Can I embed this scoreboard on my own site?
Yes — use the embed code on this page. The embedded scoreboard stays live (it reads the same tournament dataset) and includes an attribution link back to this page.