How this tool works
Your Crypto Lifetime: how many market windows fit in a life
By Menno van Ravels - 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Last reviewed:
7 min readFree to read
Your Crypto Lifetime turns your age into a rough count of how many market windows are left in an average lifetime. You choose how long one window lasts, from 3 to 6 years, and then play with your own what-if numbers. It is a way to see your time horizon, not a forecast, a signal or advice.
- Age range
- 18 to 90
- Window length
- 3 to 6 years
- Life data
- CBS, 2025
- Growth assumption
- Yours only
you set your age with one slider
you choose it, the starting value is 4
Dutch population life table, not a personal prognosis
the tool starts at 1x, which means no growth
1 · Years ahead at age 35: about 48
One tick is one year. The 0.3 left over is shown but not counted.
2 · Snapped into 12 windows of 4 years
Window 1
Window 2
Window 3
Window 4
Window 5
Window 6
Window 7
Window 8
Window 9
Window 10
Window 11
Window 12
3 · You choose the window length (3 to 6 years)
3-year windows
16
whole windows
4-year windows
12
starting value
5-year windows
9
whole windows
6-year windows
8
whole windows
4 · What-if: same money, two paths (illustrative)
- Invest from today
- Sit out the first window, then invest
Illustrative shapes. The gap is growth you did not get, not money lost. In the tool, growth is a number you set yourself.
01What is Your Crypto Lifetime?
Crypto markets are often described in cycles of roughly four years. This tool asks a simple question: if you take that idea as a working average, how many of those market windows fit in the years you probably have left?
You enter your age. The tool looks up how many years the average person of that age has ahead, divides that by the length of one window, and shows the result as a number of whole windows. After that you can build a what-if projection from your own numbers. It is free to use and does not need an account.
The four-year rhythm is not a law. It is loosely linked to the Bitcoin halving, and the tool lets you stretch a window from 3 to 6 years so you can see how much the answer depends on that choice.
02How do you read it?
The page works from top to bottom. Each part answers one question, and the parts below only appear after you have set your age.
Every part updates right away when you move a control. Nothing is sent to a server while you play with the sliders.
| Part of the page | What it shows | What you control |
|---|---|---|
| Age and horizon | Average years ahead for your age, and how many whole windows that makes | Your age (18 to 90) |
| Window timeline | Four real past periods, marked as lived through or not, then the windows still ahead | Window length (3 to 6 years) |
| Your assumptions | Starting amount, monthly amount and growth per window | Both amounts in US dollars, and the growth multiplier |
| Outcome chart | Two lines: investing from today, and sitting out the first window | Nothing, it follows your assumptions |
| Share card | A short text with your window count and a link, nothing about money | Copy it or not |
03Where does the number come from?
The years ahead come from the Dutch period life table published by CBS, the national statistics office of the Netherlands (table 37360ned, period 2025, licence CC BY 4.0). It gives the average remaining life expectancy for each age. The tool uses that figure for every visitor, wherever they live.
The window count is then simple. Remaining years divided by your window length, rounded down to whole windows. At age 35 the table gives about 48.3 years, so with 4-year windows that is 12 windows (48.3 divided by 4 is 12.08). Years that do not fill a whole window are shown, but not counted.
The timeline also lists four past periods with fixed dates: 2012 to 2015, 2016 to 2019, 2020 to 2023 and 2024 to 2025. A period counts as lived through if you were at least 18 when it started. Your birth year is estimated from your age, so this can be off by one year. Future windows carry no dates, because the tool does not predict when a cycle starts or ends.
04How does the what-if projection work?
You give three numbers: what you hold today, what you add every month, and how much your stack multiplies over one window. The options for that last one run from 0.5x (it halves) through 1x (flat) up to 10x. The tool never fills in a growth number for you, and it starts at 1x. Any growth in the chart is one you picked.
The tool then runs the plan month by month for all the windows ahead. The multiplier is spread evenly over the months of a window, so a deposit only grows for the months it is actually invested. If you are logged in and have holdings in the portfolio tracker, a button can fill in your starting amount from your live portfolio value. It only fills one rounded number, and only when you press it. If any coin has no live price, the tool says so and asks you to type a number instead, because a total that is too low would mislead you.
The chart compares two paths with the same money. In the first you invest from today. In the second you sit out the first window: your starting amount stays as it is, and the monthly amounts are held as cash and invested once that window ends. The gap between the lines is growth you did not get, not money you lost.
05What are the limits?
This is a thinking tool. Treat it as a way to see how long your time horizon is, and how much your own assumptions matter.
A population average, not you
The life table describes the average Dutch person of your age. Your own health, country and choices will differ.
Cycles are not a rule
A window is an average rhythm you choose. Real market periods have been shorter, longer and messier.
The growth number is a guess
The projection is only as good as the multiplier you type in. Crypto can also fall to zero, and a flat or falling multiplier is allowed on purpose.
Simple on purpose
No fees, taxes, price swings inside a window or changes in how much you invest. Money amounts are in US dollars.
06An example of use
A made-up example. Someone aged 35 opens the tool and keeps 4-year windows. It shows 12 windows ahead on the population average (about 48 years). They then add 200 dollars a month, leave the starting amount at zero and keep the growth at 1x, which means the chart only shows the money they put in.
Next they try 2x as a pure what-if and compare the two lines. The point is not the end number. It is how much the first window matters when the horizon is only about twelve windows long. They can also read how this fits with a regular buying plan in our DCA simulator and the Bitcoin cycle chart. Neither the example nor the tool says what any market will do.
07What is free and what is Premium?
The whole tool is free, and you do not need an account. Logged-in members see it inside their dashboard, and everyone else sees the same page with the public header. The one exception is the portfolio button, which only shows for logged-in members who have holdings in the tracker.
At the bottom, a member on a monthly plan sees a cost comparison between their monthly price and the one-time Lifetime membership, but only while a Lifetime checkout is available. It uses the price they really pay and compares costs at 12, 24, 36 and 60 months. It is kept apart from the projection, because future subscription costs are not money you can invest today. Everyone else sees a plain link to the pricing page, and members who already have Premium see nothing there.
08Frequently asked questions
Is Your Crypto Lifetime a forecast?
No. The tool does not predict prices, cycle dates or returns. The window count is simple arithmetic on a life-expectancy statistic, and the projection only uses numbers you enter yourself.
Why does it use Dutch life expectancy?
The tool uses the CBS period life table for the Dutch population, published under an open licence. It is applied to every visitor, so treat the result as a population average and not as a personal estimate.
Why does the growth setting start at 1x?
Alpha Factory does not publish return forecasts, so the tool never assumes growth for you. At 1x the chart only adds up what you put in. Any other value is your own what-if.
Does the tool save my age or my money amounts?
The numbers you enter are used in your browser to draw the page and are not sent anywhere while you move the controls. The shareable card only contains your window count and a link, not your amounts. The one exception is the optional portfolio button, which reads your own holdings when you press it.
What is a market window here?
It is a stretch of 3 to 6 years that you choose, loosely based on the roughly four-year rhythm often linked to the Bitcoin halving. It is a working average, not a promise that markets repeat.
Do I need an account or Premium?
No. The tool is free and works without an account. Membership only matters for the separate cost comparison at the bottom, which is shown to Premium members on a monthly plan.