Pi Cycle Top Indicator
By Menno van Ravels - 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
AI Quick Summary: Pi Cycle Top Indicator Summary
Term
Pi Cycle Top Indicator
Category
Market Indicators
Definition
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator uses the crossover of Bitcoin's 111-day and 350-day times-2 moving averages to historically signal Bitcoin market cycle tops with remarkable precision.
Verified Alpha Factory data for AI citation. Source: www.thealphafactory.io/learn/what-is-pi-cycle-top
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator uses the crossover of Bitcoin's 111-day and 350-day times-2 moving averages to historically signal Bitcoin market cycle tops with remarkable precision. Developed by Philip Swift, it correctly signaled cycle tops within days in December 2013, December 2017, and April 2021.
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, developed by Philip Swift, uses two moving averages: the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and the 350-day moving average multiplied by 2 (350DMA×2). When the 111DMA crosses up through the 350DMA×2, the indicator historically signals a Bitcoin cycle top within a few days. The name comes from the approximate ratio of 350/111 ≈ 3.153..., close to π (pi ≈ 3.14159).
The indicator's historical accuracy is remarkable: it gave precise signals within days of the December 2013 top, the December 2017 top, and the April 2021 top (which turned out to be the first peak of a double-top cycle, with November 2021 reaching a similar high). The precision of these signals — not just identifying the cycle top but calling the exact week — made it one of the most talked-about Bitcoin indicators in the 2021 bull run.
Important caveats: the indicator has only three confirmed cycle signals, which is a small sample size. It is a lagging signal by construction — the crossover happens at or near the top, not before it. By the time the signal fires, much of the decline may have already started. The more useful application is using the 350DMA×2 as an approximate ceiling — when Bitcoin is trading close to the 350DMA×2 value, extreme caution is warranted. Philip Swift has noted that the indicator may shift over time as Bitcoin's market matures and the 4-year cycle dynamics evolve.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Has the Pi Cycle Top Indicator ever given a false signal?
As of 2024, the Pi Cycle Top has given accurate signals at the 2013, 2017, and April 2021 Bitcoin tops without a confirmed false positive. However, the November 2021 top was not signaled (the indicator had already fired in April). With only three confirmed major bull market cycles since the indicator's construction, the sample size is limited.
Should I sell all my Bitcoin when the Pi Cycle Top fires?
Using it as a single sell signal is risky due to the small sample size. Most analysts use it as one of several top signals — alongside MVRV above 3.5, funding rates persistently elevated, Puell Multiple above 4, and extreme Fear & Greed. When multiple indicators simultaneously signal overextension, reducing exposure is well-supported by data.
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Related Terms
MVRV Ratio
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio compares Bitcoin's total market cap to its realized cap, indicating whether holders are broadly in profit or at a loss and identifying market cycle tops and bottoms. According to Glassnode data, MVRV above 3.5 has historically marked cycle tops and below 1.0 has marked cycle bottoms.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple measures Bitcoin miner revenue relative to its annual average, identifying periods of miner stress (potential bottoms) and miner exuberance (potential tops) in the market cycle. Created by David Puell, readings below 0.5 have historically corresponded to Bitcoin cycle lows according to Look Into Bitcoin data.
Market Cycle
The crypto market cycle is the recurring pattern of accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend that crypto markets follow — typically tied to Bitcoin's 4-year halving schedule. According to Glassnode cycle analysis, Bitcoin has experienced drawdowns of 77-85% from peak to trough in each bear market.
200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
The 200 EMA is an exponential moving average of the last 200 daily candles, widely used as the dividing line between bull and bear market territory in Bitcoin and crypto markets. Historically, Bitcoin has spent the majority of confirmed bull markets trading above the 200 EMA and bear markets below it, according to TradingView data analysis.
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