How to Set Crypto Exit Targets Before You Buy
By Menno — 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Last updated: March 2026
Crypto exit targets should be defined before your first purchase, using risk scoring and historical cycle data rather than price predictions. A pre-defined two-zone exit — partial at risk score 70–80, remainder at 80–100 — removes the emotional pressure of the sell decision and ensures you capture the majority of each cycle's upside.
Key Takeaways
- •Setting exit targets before buying removes target creep — the psychological process that keeps investors holding through full cycle collapses.
- •Risk score-based exits use market structure rather than price prediction, making them more reliable across different cycle shapes.
- •A two-zone exit — 30–40% at score 70–80, 60–70% at score 80–100 — distributes selling across the high-risk zone without requiring top-tick timing.
- •Running an exit simulation before your first purchase makes the expected return concrete and the eventual sell decision easier to execute.
- •Written, pre-committed targets are fundamentally more effective than in-the-moment decisions made under greed or fear.
The Problem With Setting Exit Targets After You Buy
Most investors do not think seriously about selling until after prices have already risen significantly. At that point, every target they set is contaminated by greed. If they set $500 as a target when the coin is at $300, and it hits $500, they tell themselves it will reach $700. At $700 they want $1,000. This process — known as target creep — is what keeps investors holding through the full cycle collapse.
The reason target creep happens is that when prices are rising, selling feels like giving up. The reference point shifts constantly upward. Every new price becomes the new baseline, and the original gain looks small relative to the imagined future. This is a well-documented psychological bias called anchoring to recent highs.
The only reliable way to avoid it is to commit to your exit levels before the asset has risen significantly — ideally before your first purchase, when you are in a planning mindset rather than an emotional one. Written, pre-committed targets have a fundamentally different psychological weight than targets you set while watching green candles.
How to Use Risk Scores to Define Your Exit Zone
Rather than setting a price target — which requires predicting the future — exit planning based on risk scores ties your sell decision to market structure. The score integrates the bi-weekly RSI, distance from historical highs, market cap, and momentum. When it enters the 70–100 range, the coin is historically in the phase of a cycle where sellers have been rewarded.
The practical process: look up each coin's historical risk score pattern. Most coins tracked by Menno's Altcoin Rules system have topped out between scores of 80 and 93. The average sell zone across the watchlist is approximately 82. That means the historical "sell most of this" signal has arrived at score 82, regardless of the dollar price at the time.
This structure-based exit removes dollar amounts from the equation and replaces them with market cycle position. You are not guessing whether $800 is the top — you are following a signal that says the market is in the historically overextended zone where selling has consistently outperformed holding.
Building a Two-Zone Exit Plan That Removes EmotionPremium
A single exit price creates an all-or-nothing decision. A two-zone exit plan distributes the selling across the high-risk range, reducing the psychological burden of any single transaction.
Running the Exit Simulation: Knowing Your Number Before You InvestPremium
Included with the full lesson.
Frequently Asked Questions
What if my exit target seems too low and the coin keeps going?▾
That is the point. You are not trying to maximise every dollar — you are trying to capture the majority of the cycle's upside with minimal emotional decision-making. If your plan says sell 30% at score 75 and the coin later goes higher, your remaining 70% still participates. No exit plan captures the absolute top.
Should my exit target be a price or a risk score?▾
A risk score is more reliable because it adjusts for market context. A price target assumes the coin will reach that price in a specific time frame, which may not align with market reality. A risk score target fires when the market structure indicates the historically overextended zone — regardless of the dollar amount.
How do I handle coins that have not reached my exit target at the end of a cycle?▾
If a coin never reaches your exit zone before the market turns down, you are still holding at lower risk than someone who bought without a plan. The decision then is whether to hold into the next cycle or cut exposure. That decision should be made based on the project's fundamentals, not the hope of recovering unrealised gains.
Is it better to set one exit target or multiple?▾
Multiple is almost always better. A minimum of two exit zones — one at the beginning of the high-risk range and one in the middle-to-late range — ensures you start locking in profits before the peak while still participating in any final leg upward.
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Get Full AccessNot financial advice. All content is for educational purposes only. Crypto investing involves significant risk. Always do your own research.