By Menno — 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions
Last updated: April 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) Risk Score
Bitcoin (BTC) has a composite risk score of 16/100, classified as Very Low Risk. This score is derived from 5 active indicators and updates every 6 hours. The original cryptocurrency and largest by market cap. Digital gold and store of value.
Bitcoin Risk Score
Very Low Risk
What Does This Score Mean?
A score of 16 means Bitcoin is in the Very Low Risk zone. Scores below 40 indicate relatively lower risk conditions, while scores above 60 suggest elevated risk.
This composite is computed from up to 9 indicators including on-chain data, market sentiment, and price action. The individual indicator scores are available to Alpha Factory members.
Scoring Indicators
| Indicator | Weight | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Wave | 23% | Core |
| RSI (2-Week) | 18% | Core |
| ATH Distance | 5% | Core |
| Bitcoin Dominance | 5% | Core |
| Fear & Greed Index | 14% | Core |
| ALT/BTC Ratio | 5% | Core |
| BTC Production Cost | 9% | Core |
| Funding Rate | 5% | Modifier |
| Token Unlocks | 18% | Modifier |
Bitcoin Investment Context
Bitcoin's fixed supply and decentralized issuance schedule make it a candidate for a long-term inflation hedge in portfolios. Institutional adoption through regulated ETFs (approved in the US in January 2024) has broadened access significantly. Its first-mover advantage and network effect give it a level of liquidity and recognition no other crypto asset currently matches.
Key Features:
- Fixed supply capped at 21 million coins, enforced by protocol rules
- Proof-of-Work consensus secured by the largest mining network in existence
- 10-minute average block time with difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks
- Lightning Network enables faster, cheaper off-chain payments
Key Risks:
- Energy-intensive Proof-of-Work mining draws ongoing regulatory scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions
- Limited programmability compared to smart-contract platforms restricts use-case expansion
- Highly volatile in USD terms despite its 'store of value' narrative
Layer 1 Category
Layer 1 blockchains are the foundational networks of crypto — they process transactions, secure the network, and host applications.
Strategy: Layer 1 tokens tend to follow Bitcoin's macro cycles but with higher volatility. A disciplined DCA approach with clear exit targets works best.
View all Layer 1 risk scores →Compare with Layer 1 Peers
| # | Coin | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flow FLOW | 5 |
| 2 | Cardano ADA | 7 |
| 3 | Sei SEI | 7 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current risk score for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin (BTC) currently has a composite risk score of 16/100, classified as "Very Low Risk". This score is derived from 5 active indicators including Risk Wave, RSI, and market sentiment data.
How risky is Bitcoin compared to other Layer 1 coins?
Layer 1 coins generally carry medium to high risk. Layer 1 blockchains are the foundational networks of crypto — they process transactions, secure the network, and host applications. Among peers, Flow currently shows the lowest risk in this category.
What indicators are used to score Bitcoin?
The Bitcoin risk score uses up to 9 indicators: Risk Wave (momentum), 2-week RSI (overbought/oversold), ATH Distance, Bitcoin Dominance, Fear & Greed Index, ALT/BTC Ratio, BTC Production Cost, Funding Rate, and Token Unlocks. As Bitcoin, the ALT/BTC Ratio indicator is excluded.
Should I invest in Bitcoin based on this risk score?
Risk scores are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Bitcoin's fixed supply and decentralized issuance schedule make it a candidate for a long-term inflation hedge in portfolios. Institutional adoption through regulated ETFs (approved in the US in Janua... Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.