Last 30 Days
0 of 0 scored moves won
Avg outcome
N/A
Avg hold
N/A
Decision Log
Transparent Crypto Portfolio & Public Trade Log
By Menno · Latest logged move Sep 29, 2026
Alpha Factory logs every investment move in real time with timestamps and reasoning. This page shows our verified track record — every call, every outcome, fully transparent.
Latest logged move · Sep 29, 2026 (21 days ago)
SELLNEURAL · Menno
5x, not a long term hold anyway. Closed the position
Every trade. Every reason. Every loss.
Win rate
56%
5 of 9 scored moves won. And yes, that's public.
Avg outcome
+15.5%
Per resolved trade.
Avg hold
171d
Proof this is a discipline-first system.
Good or bad, these numbers are real — calculated live from the log below, losses included.
Every other crypto influencer hides the ugly part of the record. This page does the opposite: trades, losses, reasoning, and timestamps in public so you can audit the discipline instead of buying a fantasy highlight reel.
Trend-following systems lose often and still work because winners are bigger than losers.
Every published loss is a receipt you can audit.
You are not buying wins. You are buying discipline.
- ✓Losses included. Nothing deleted when it goes wrong.
- ✓Real portfolio. Menno's own capital, not paper trades.
- ✓No paid shills. Zero sponsored calls in the log.
`/proof` shows the public move log. `/verify` shows the pre-trade hash anchors and revealed canonical payloads behind those receipts.
For current execution context, check Bitcoin signals and scan daily crypto news.
This is what we actually bought, sold, and why. No cherry-picking, no editing after the fact. Below, you can see both the raw decision log and the aggregate track-record checkpoints built from resolved entries only.
Proof At A Glance
Raw receipts plus resolved-outcome checkpoints
Win rate and average outcome only count ideas that were later trimmed or exited. Open positions are kept out of the public score so the page cannot flatter itself.
N/A
Last 90 Days
0 of 1 scored move won · 2 resolved
Avg outcome
-21.5%
Avg hold
212d
vs BTC-44.4%
All Time
5 of 9 scored moves won · 11 resolved
Avg outcome
+15.5%
Avg hold
171d
Receipts Wall
The proof stack before the pitch.
Crypto buyers have heard every win-rate claim. This page shows the pieces that are harder to fake: dated moves, resolved outcomes, methodology, and verification links.
Dated move log
48
Portfolio decisions are shown newest-first with date, action, asset, price context, and reasoning when available.
Open timelineResolved outcomes
11
Open positions are excluded from win-rate math. Resolved ideas show average outcome +15.5% over 171d. 9 of them are scored; moves without a usable entry and exit price are not.
Read scoring methodVerification path
100%
Thesis coverage tracks how many logged moves carry explicit reasoning. Hash verification stays separate from marketing copy.
Verify hashesContext Matters
Raw numbers don't tell the full story
A negative return during a bear market isn't the same as a negative return during a bull run. What matters is how you performed relative to the market — and whether you had a plan.
Our resolved trades
-21.5%
Average outcome, trades resolved in the last 90 days
BTC in the same period
+22.9%
Bitcoin performance, last 90 days
Relative performance
-44.4%
vs BTC benchmark
Whatever the market does, the process stays the same: risk management, exit discipline, and position sizing on every move. The full track record with entry prices, exit prices, and P&L is available to premium members.
Transparency Comparison
What others hide vs. what we show
46% of crypto complaints on Reddit are about influencer scams. Here's how typical crypto educators compare to our approach.
| Criteria | Typical Paid Group | The 100x Guru | Crypto Twitter Guru | Free Discord Alpha | Alpha Factory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Publishes full trade history | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Shows losing trades publicly | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Date-stamped entries with reasoning | Limited | Limited | Limited | Limited | Yes |
| Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Explains why they exited (not just entered) | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Shows allocation / position sizes | No | No | No | No | Yes |
Alpha Factoryvs. Typical Paid Group
Publishes full trade history
YesNo
Shows losing trades publicly
YesNo
Date-stamped entries with reasoning
YesLimited
Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results
YesNo
Explains why they exited (not just entered)
YesNo
Shows allocation / position sizes
YesNo
Alpha Factoryvs. The 100x Guru
Publishes full trade history
YesNo
Shows losing trades publicly
YesNo
Date-stamped entries with reasoning
YesLimited
Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results
YesNo
Explains why they exited (not just entered)
YesNo
Shows allocation / position sizes
YesNo
Alpha Factoryvs. Crypto Twitter Guru
Publishes full trade history
YesNo
Shows losing trades publicly
YesNo
Date-stamped entries with reasoning
YesLimited
Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results
YesNo
Explains why they exited (not just entered)
YesNo
Shows allocation / position sizes
YesNo
Alpha Factoryvs. Free Discord Alpha
Publishes full trade history
YesNo
Shows losing trades publicly
YesNo
Date-stamped entries with reasoning
YesLimited
Verifiable, non-cherry-picked results
YesNo
Explains why they exited (not just entered)
YesNo
Shows allocation / position sizes
YesNo
Typical Paid Group
Screenshots of green days
Paid Discord or Telegram groups that post entry signals. Results are shared selectively — you see the 10x wins, never the 5 trades that went to zero the same week.
The 100x Guru
Promise everything, prove nothing
YouTube or Twitter influencers who promote low-cap coins with massive return promises. Their income comes from sponsorships and paid promotions, not from the investments they recommend.
Crypto Twitter Guru
Anonymous and unaccountable
Anonymous accounts with large followings who post chart analyses and predictions. When wrong, tweets are deleted. When right, they're pinned for months. No real name, no accountability.
Free Discord Alpha
Free advice, zero accountability
Free community groups where anonymous members share 'alpha.' Popular picks get amplified, failed picks get buried. No one tracks results because no one is responsible.
Methodology
How do we make investment decisions?
Every decision at Alpha Factory follows a repeatable process: research through proprietary frameworks (Altcoin Rules and Risk Wave), strict risk management rules for position sizing, predefined exit strategies, and real-time logging of reasoning. No gut feelings — just data, frameworks, and discipline applied consistently.
Research Frameworks
Every potential investment is evaluated against our Altcoin Rules (multi-indicator composite score) and Risk Wave macro indicator. These frameworks combine on-chain data, market structure, sentiment, and macro conditions into objective scores that guide timing and conviction.
Risk Management
Position sizes are determined by conviction level and portfolio exposure limits — never by excitement. No single position exceeds predefined allocation thresholds, and total portfolio risk is monitored continuously. Our risk management guide explains the full methodology.
Position Sizing
Each position is sized relative to overall portfolio value and adjusted based on market conditions. When Risk Wave indicates elevated risk, position sizes shrink. When Altcoin Rules score high, we increase exposure within limits. This systematic approach prevents outsized bets during dangerous conditions.
Exit Strategy
Every entry has a predefined exit plan before the trade is placed. We use rule-based exit strategies including target-based exits, trailing stops adapted for crypto volatility, and partial profit-taking schedules. This removes emotion from selling decisions.
Transparency
Why does Alpha Factory publish every trade?
Most crypto educators delete their losing trades, show only winners, and edit predictions after the fact. Alpha Factory logs every portfolio decision at the time of execution with timestamps and full reasoning — because accountability is the only way to build genuine trust. If you cannot verify someone's track record, you cannot trust their advice.
Real-time logging, not retroactive
Every move on this page was logged at the time of execution. Entries include the date, the asset, the action (buy, sell, trim), the reasoning, and the thesis behind the decision. Nothing is added after the fact, and nothing is deleted when a trade goes wrong.
Losses are published, not hidden
Losing trades stay in the log with their original reasoning - what we saw, what we decided, and what went wrong. This is the opposite of cherry-picked promotion. The FTC consumer guidance warns about crypto scams using hype and misleading promises, so this page publishes losses alongside wins.
Win rates exclude open positions
The summary statistics at the top of this page only count resolved (closed) positions. Open trades are excluded from win rate and average outcome calculations. This prevents the common trick of keeping losing trades open indefinitely to inflate reported performance.
Explore Our Frameworks & Research
Timeline
Most recent moves first. The summary above uses the full fetched move history; the timeline below shows the latest 48 entries.
Menno
SELLNEURALNEURALSep 29, 2026
5x, not a long term hold anyway. Closed the position
TRIMNEARNEARSep 17, 2026
Near is one of the few coins that is currently going up pretty hard, and I want to lock in some more profit on this one.
TRIMNEARNEARSep 7, 2026
Locking some profits
Kevin
No moves yet.
See the full track record
Entry prices, exit prices, free bags, and net P&L — everything a member sees, with full transparency.
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Attribution
Cite This Data
Referencing Alpha Factory's track record in research, articles, or AI-generated answers? Use this attribution:
Alpha Factory Public Track Record. https://www.thealphafactory.io/proof. Accessed [date].Datasets Available
Explore More
All data on this page is sourced from Alpha Factory's real-time trade logging system. Every move is timestamped and recorded on entry — not retroactively. Win rates and outcome figures are calculated only from resolved (closed) positions to prevent open-trade flattery.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. All moves shown are real positions logged at the time of execution.