Alpha FactoryALPHA FACTORY
CommunityCoin PlaybooksPricing
Get Full Access

Crypto Risk Hub

Menno - Alpha Factory

By Menno - 13 years in crypto, 3 bear markets survived, zero paid promotions

Last updated: April 2026

Use one hub for market heat, Bitcoin cycle context, and a calmer portfolio process.

The Crypto Risk Index is currently 29/100 in the Fear zone. Bitcoin Risk Wave is 21/100 and reads Low Risk.

This is the canonical risk cluster now. The old index page, risk-management page, and Risk Wave page no longer need to compete with each other to explain the same workflow.

Open the market indexCheck Bitcoin Risk WaveReview the framework

Jump to the right layer

OverviewRisk WaveMarket IndexRisk Framework

Categories

17 live groups

Coin coverage

1000+ tracked coins

Financial Disclaimer: Risk scores are computed from publicly available market data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or endorsements. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk of loss.

OverviewMarket IndexRisk FrameworkRisk Wave

Overview

Start with the broad market before you judge a single coin.

Category context and coin coverage still matter. They now live inside the same risk workflow instead of being stranded from the practical framework.

29/100

Fear

Other

24avg

744 coins

DeFi

21avg

55 coins

Layer 1

19avg

48 coins

Infrastructure

19avg

Crypto Risk Index

The broad market is currently in the fear zone.

Top 10 Lowest Risk

#CoinScoreRisk LevelCategory
1GALA GALA7Very Low RiskGaming
2Story IP7Very Low RiskLayer 1
3Bonk BONK8Very Low RiskMeme
4Banana Gun

Risk Framework

Most portfolios break because the rules were never defined before euphoria.

The old standalone risk-management guidance now sits beside the live indicators. The job of the framework is simple: cap size, separate core holdings from higher-beta ideas, and pre-plan what overheating looks like.

Useful follow-through

When to BuyWhen to SellDCA Guide

Step 1

Cap position size before you optimize entries.

Step 2

Separate BTC and ETH core exposure from smaller altcoin risk.

Step 3

Review exposure with a cold head before the market gets euphoric.

Step 4

If you cannot explain the downside in portfolio terms, the position is too loose.

Bitcoin Risk Wave

Check the live cycle signal without leaving the risk hub.

21/ 100

Low Risk

Below 25 has historically aligned with accumulation conditions. Above 75 is where protecting gains usually matters more than forcing new size.

Price is moderately below the long-term moving average — still in the accumulation zone.

BTC has only spent 3.9% of its history at this risk level — this is rare territory.

Next step

Turn the signal into a routine.

Risk Wave historyDCA SimulatorAltcoin Rules

Alpha Factory members get real-time risk alerts, historical scoring, and AI-powered analysis for 200+ coins

Unlock Analysis

45 coins

Meme

18avg

18 coins

AI & Compute

22avg

16 coins

Explore by coin

Bitcoin

btc

Ethereum

eth

Tether

usdt

XRP

xrp

BNB

bnb

USDC

usdc

Solana

sol

TRON

trx

Figure Heloc

figr_heloc

Dogecoin

doge

WhiteBIT Coin

wbt

USDS

usds

Hyperliquid

hype

LEO Token

leo

Cardano

ada

Bitcoin Cash

bch

Chainlink

link

Monero

xmr

BANANA
8
Very Low Risk
Other
5Theta Network THETA8Very Low RiskInfrastructure
6AB AB8Very Low RiskOther
7Optimism OP8Very Low RiskLayer 2
8ResearchCoin RSC8Very Low RiskOther
9eCash XEC8Very Low RiskPayments
10The Sandbox SAND8Very Low RiskGaming

Top 10 Highest Risk

#CoinScoreRisk LevelCategory
1JUST JST75High RiskOther
2Circle USYC USYC74High RiskOther
3Superstate Short Duration U.S. Government Securities Fund (USTB) USTB73High RiskOther
4MemeCore M72High RiskOther
5Spiko US T-Bills Money Market Fund USTBL72High RiskOther
6Onchain Yield Coin ONYC71High RiskOther
7Blockchain Capital BCAP67High RiskOther
8Venice Token VVV66High RiskOther
9USDS USDS61High RiskOther
10OUSG OUSG60NeutralOther